Most Consequential Elections in Israeli History

I was invited to talk on this topic and explained why the 2026 elections are, indeed, the most consequential elections in Israeli history.

The Future of Israeli Democracy

• • The elections may be viewed as a referendum on the balance between majority rule and institutional checks and balances.
  • Questions concerning judicial power, constitutional norms, and the relationship between elected officials and state institutions remain central.

Thus the election concerns more than who occupies the Prime Minister’s Office. It also bears on:

judicial independence;

checks and balances;

executive power;

the role of the Attorney General;

media independence;

the relationship between government and civil society;

constitutional safeguards for minorities;

the meaning of liberal democracy in Israel.

The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

• • Voters may face fundamentally different visions regarding the West Bank, Gaza, settlements, security policy, and the possibility of future negotiations.
  • The results could influence whether Israel moves toward separation, annexation, conflict management, or renewed diplomacy.
  • Gaza;
  • the West Bank;
  • settlements;
  • annexation;
  • Palestinian statehood;
  • Israeli military control;
  • relations with the Palestinian Authority;
  • regional normalization

While I do not expect the winner to rush into an agreement with the Palestinians, I believe I know what lies ahead if Netanyahu remains in office: more bad news for the Palestinians and growing concern for Israel’s future. By contrast, I hope that a different prime minister would chart a more constructive, forward-looking, and just course, creating better prospects for both Israelis and Palestinians.

Regional Integration

• • The elections could affect Israel’s relationships with Arab states and the future of normalization agreements.
  • Regional security arrangements and economic cooperation may depend on the government’s policy direction.

National Security After Years of Conflict

• • Security questions continue to dominate Israeli politics.
  • The electorate may be deciding between competing approaches to deterrence, military strategy, and relations with neighbouring actors.

Social Cohesion

• • Israel remains deeply divided along political, religious, ethnic, and ideological lines.
  • The election could shape relations between secular and religious communities, Jewish and Arab citizens, and different visions of Israeli identity.

Constitutional and Institutional Questions

• • Israel still lacks a single formal written constitution.
  • Debates concerning Basic Laws, judicial review, and governmental authority may have long-term consequences that extend well beyond one electoral cycle.

The relationship between religion and state is becoming a central constitutional question

The Haredi military-service issue has become particularly consequential.

The dispute over exemptions from military service has contributed directly to coalition instability and was one of the issues behind the dissolution of the Knesset process.

Israel’s international position is at stake

The election occurs after an extraordinary deterioration and transformation in Israel’s international environment.

The next government will have to manage relationships with:

• the United States;
• European governments;
• Arab states;
• the Palestinian leadership;
• Iran;
• Lebanon;
• Syria;
• international institutions.

Israel needs a new leader who does not harbour incitement, violence and wars, one who is responsible for his people and for his actions, one who is compassionate, one who can unite a grieving nation in deep trauma.