On ‘genocide’ in Gaza
On ‘genocide’ in Gaza
The horrific images of Palestinian civilian suffering in Gaza, as seen daily on TV and other media, seems to be effectively shaping world opinion against the Israeli perception of the conflict. These images are often accompanied by Palestinian claims that Israel is committing a planned genocide against the Gazan population. The definition of genocide is a complex task but the term is indisputably based on the well-planned and effective, mass murder of 6 million Jews by the German Nazis and their supporters, during World War II.
Before going on, let me clarify my position. I am an Israeli citizen who made aliyah from the UK in 1970. Like many other Israelis, I despise the fanatics on both sides of the conflict who claim that God/Allah is somehow instructing their actions. I am no supporter of our divisive prime minister ‘Bibi’ Netanyahu, and do not accept his contention that only a ‘total victory’ over the murderous Jihadists of Hamas will prevent future repeats of Hamas attacks on Israel. I still hope that a gradual negotiated settlement will be a better way forward. After a career in plant biology, I am no expert in international law. I do however know something about the quantitative analysis of data and that led me to critically examine the Palestinian claim of a planned genocide in Gaza.
Updated numbers of Palestinian fatalities are reported on by the Hamas controlled ministry of health. After nearly 2 years of a war that started with the deadly Hamas invasion of southern Israel on Oct 7, 2023, the reported number of Gazan fatalities is gradually approaching 70,000. However natural deaths through age or sicknesses are apparently included and more than 20,000 of these fatalities, were, according to Israeli military (IDF) estimates, armed Hamas fighters rather than innocent Gazan civilians.
So, are Gazan fatalities incurred during their nearly 2-year long war against Israel indicative of an intended genocide? Netanyahu claims, ironically, that if the government and the IDF with its range of modern destructive weapons, had planned a genocide for all the 2.1 million citizens of Gaza, it could have finished in weeks; and that didn’t happen. Furthermore, a rough calculation of the average murder rate of Jews during the Nazi genocide comes to 1 million per year, i.e. 16 % of the then Jewish population per year. A comparative calculation, for the claimed 70,000 Gazan fatalities during nearly 2 years of bitter fighting in densely populated areas, yields an average annual rate of 1.7% of the population; bad enough but hardly the level expected in, or justifying the ‘genocide’ claim.
Moreover, the seemingly false Palestinian argument that they are victims of a planned Israeli genocide can be matched by more robust claims concerning their intentions towards Israel. Thus, since October 7, approximately 19,000 missiles have been fired indiscriminately at civilian towns and villages in southern and central Israel by Hamas and other jihadist organizations in Gaza. If they land on a typical family residence, such missiles can maim or kill the inhabitants. Assuming 2 parents and 2 children per residence we can estimate a Gazan war plan designed to maim or kill 76,000 Israeli men women and children. I have not included some 2000 Israeli men women and children grotesquely murdered (or first kidnapped and later murdered) during the first 2 days of the Jihadi invasion of southern Israel or the intended effects of countless thousands of even more destructive missiles fired at Israelis by Hamas allies in Lebanon, Yemen and Iran. Of course, these terrible fatality estimates did not materialize because the IDF manages to effectively intercept many of the missiles before they inflict damage.
In conclusion, any modern war in which military or para military armies try to kill their opponents and get them to surrender, can involve immoral accompaniments such as the displacement, sexual abuse, starvation, injury and death of more or less involved individuals and families, on both sides. For examples, look at the far more vicious civil wars in Syria, Sudan and Yemen or the ongoing Russian war against Ukraine. Despite harming many millions of innocent civilians, these wars have not led to one-sided media and diplomatic condemnations and demonstrations similar to those generated by the latest war between Israel and its Middle eastern neighbors. I suggest that more balanced viewpoints are called for.
