One, Two, Three, Knockout

Israel has achieved a significant milestone this week by successfully eliminating Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, in a precise airstrike in Beirut. The Israeli forces continue their strategic operations against Hezbollah, targeting terrorists, missile launchers, rocket arsenals, and critical infrastructure.

As I predicted in May 2023, Israel is executing a strategic three-phased plan to counter radical Jihadist Iran and its arc of terrorist proxies across the Middle East. In the first phase, Israel fought an extensive 11-month war and defeated Hamas in Gaza. Israel is now firmly in the second phase, focusing on dismantling Hezbollah in Lebanon. The third phase will address the existential threat posed by radical Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

In this second phase in Lebanon, following initial air force operations to soften the battlefield, Israel will need to advance its armored forces up to the Litani River to clear out the terrorists. Further, this move aims to recreate a buffer zone that existed before Israel’s withdrawal in 2000. This buffer zone is crucial for two main reasons: it provides strategic depth, allowing the safe return of residents to northern Israel, and it sets the stage for future peace negotiations with Lebanon.

The previous attempt to establish a demilitarized zone in southern Lebanon under UN Resolution 1701 in 2006 failed to stop Hezbollah terrorists from returning to menace Israel due to a lack of enforcement by the United Nations. This time, Israel cannot rely on the ineffective United Nations for security. Instead, Israel must ensure it controls the northern region’s future.

Reestablishing the security zone means Lebanon will lose hundreds of square miles of territory to Israel for an indefinite period. It may take Lebanon 3-5 years to fully grasp the consequences and come to the negotiating table. At that point, Israel should insist on a comprehensive peace agreement in exchange for vacating the security zone, similar to the land-for-peace deal with Egypt in 1979, which has endured for 45 years.

Unlike previous conflicts in Lebanon, where Hezbollah used guerrilla tactics to create an asymmetric battlefield, Israel should adopt strategies from both the Korean and Ukraine conflicts. Establishing a demilitarized zone fortified with trenches, barricades, minefields, sensors, and armed drone patrols will prevent Hezbollah from crossing and posing a significant threat. Persistent surveillance and air force operations will neutralize any terror threats north of the buffer zone. Israel must maintain effective control of the security zone until peace with Lebanon is achieved.

If Lebanon fails to pursue peace within a reasonable timeframe, Israel should consider either making the demilitarized zone permanent or annexing the territory, similar to the Golan Heights from Syria. Israel must take all necessary actions to secure its state from further aggression. However, the hope remains that Lebanon will choose peace and a prosperous future alongside its neighbor, Israel.

Once Israel clears its “inner ring” of terrorists on its borders in Gaza and Lebanon, the most important phase will be fighting and defeating global Jihadi terrorist Iran. In this final battle, Israel will need to overcome a much more powerful and menacing threat on the brink of nuclear breakout. May G-d help Israel to prevail in this battle of good over evil, and may His mighty deeds be known throughout the entire world.