Before I get into the specifics of why it’s a scary notion Russia re-entered the already complex and fragile Middle East, predominantly after the very recent loss of the Russian surveillance aircraft during hostile actions in Syria. I want to clarify that you, Vladimir Putin along with Russia are loved, respected, and feared by many worldwide. And this analytic account is in no way meant to be disrespectful or insulting, for I along with numerous others know the resolve, abilities and sheer power that you possess.
I personally began to understand the Russian people, and admire them in certain instances, through direct contact when I moved to the Middle East. It was no longer academic, but genuine, practical and reality.
Nonetheless as a westerner that is neither Jewish nor Muslim, some may question my capacity to accurately evaluate the Middle East. Furthermore, perhaps doubt my skill or aptitude in giving advice to a seasoned Russian President who additionally has a background in Intelligence.
However after reading this brief presentation, it will hopefully become obvious that my many years growing up and living internationally, plus my over twenty-five years living permanently in the Middle East has not gone to waste.
First I want to outline basic historical facts.
The Middle East region has nearly always been in turmoil either via country-to-country wars or because of domestic clan, tribal and strong religious and inter-religious conflict. Thereby, many in this part of the world are profoundly acquainted with everyday, extreme violence, warfare and death.
Moreover, in several locales the fighting has been perpetual. One might claim it is a certainty of life for those unfortunate populations of victims. Therefore a common added tragic reaction to this particular life-fate is that of distressed acceptance and bloodshed expectation.
We westerners, including Russians, are trained for war, viciously and courageously fight and many times win, but we do not live in an unending, hostile-death atmosphere. The mentality in these environments can be appallingly diverse from ours. In some cases exposing drastic behavior alteration, consciousness seared and distorted, fantasizing, many times triggering mass casualties and atrocities to outsiders, indigenous and relatives by the most brutal means and weapons.
What’s more, this unstable and incessant evolving mentality is unpredictable and has proven to be exceedingly unreliable as individuals have turned on their trainers, advisors, and assisting soldiers, repaying kindness and help with kidnap, torture and death. These types have killed their own, the Americans, and will eventually turn on you, Russia – it is almost a guaranteed prediction.
Then insert the Israel equation. I won’t go into this as the history is well known, only to say neighbor and blood-relation battles are the worse kind of clashes. In the best scenario you don’t want to take sides or get in-between. Yet, sometimes this is impossible.
Israel though, exclusively the Jewish Israeli and their quest to have, maintain and ensure the survival of their Jewish Nation, is unique. Any adversary or challenger should take note why.
Israel is a superpower. They have the ability to attack globally by land, air and sea, also with (alleged) nuclear weapons.
But this doesn’t make them unique.
What’s distinguishes Israel from every nation, and superpower, is their development path as a Jewish Nation.
Concisely, their past history of intermittent worldwide, but worldwide nevertheless, persecution, rejection and mass extermination forcing them to arise into a ultra-strong, determined, organized, and brilliantly advanced society, that nurtures and encourages competition, top achievement, debate, creation, technology, security, remembrance (and honor) of the dead in battle and terror, remembrance of the holocaust, and most importantly and never to be understated, survival.
Did I mention: remembrance of the dead in battle and terror, remembrance of the holocaust, and survival?
Jewish Israelis may like to worship God, make money, create and have fun (not inevitably in that order) but survival is their fundamental characteristic that keeps them alive surrounded by enemies. Remembrance, strength, training, military edge and preempt strikes facilitates them to do so. This is the key.
The following illustration is a proper image of the average Jewish Israeli mentality, in relation to their security as a nation, and should burn internally into the mind of anyone threatening the Jewish State of Israel; think upon a sudden, unexpected encounter, surprising a mother bear with her cubs. What is the frequent outcome? It’s not pretty and normally very unpleasant for anyone encountering a mother bear protecting her cubs.
This is forever the way Israel will attack or treat an aggressor that is a proven threat. A comprehensive, total fight to death because they, Israel, believe they have nowhere to go, no place to escape, and nowhere else to live.
In most circumstances that gives, in this case Israel, a monumental aggressive advantage, besides their ongoing training, testing, equipment, intelligence, tactics, strategies, past skirmishes, and their supremely precise knowledge of the area. Accordingly if Israel sustains substantial losses or senses the brink of annihilation, their normal humanitarian rules of warfare engagement will immediately vanish, instead using all their might as promised.
As for Russia, Israel knows Russia. Israel knows the destruction Russia might be capable of wielding, and they know each of the Russian personnel in charge of exerting those devastating blows. Israel’s knowledge on weapons potential and behavioral sciences is exceptional.
Plus as I have mentioned in prior reports and articles, Israel is not afraid of Russia. They may be worried, but not wholly afraid, and that is a vital statistic to reflect that Israel will not hesitate to take action on anyone threatening or implicated in a direct threat.
Russia has not done anything in this era to distinguish herself in battle lately and old reputations from World War Two and the Cold War are forgotten and ignored.
Next there is the metaphorical idiom, the elephant-in-the-room, the United States of America (USA).
Not only has it been repeated by US presidents but present intercontinental belief prevails that if Israel is attacked, USA will defend Israel and retaliate. And this takes everything to an auxiliary, perilous level with Russia, USA and Israel in the same vicinity, each with nuclear options. Despite origin of country, every soldier and civilian in the Middle East and Mediterranean will be at acute risk.
We know why USA is here. From the re-emergence of Israel as a country in 1948, USA’s many, many pro-Israel Christians, along with a large population of American Jews have prayed, supported, lobbied and fought for Israel. When USA reentered the Middle East in the 1990s during the Gulf crisis, they stayed in the region, unlike Russia, when after the collapse of the Soviet Union, departed only to return in about 2013.
Now, people can deliberate the reasons why Russia is back in the Middle East. My opinion is; it’s their business. And, I’m not arrogant or brave enough to be demeaning and offensive as to suggest to Vladimir Putin and the Russians to leave.
What I would like to respectfully propose though, is to have Russian analysts and behavioral professionals robustly consider the minimum information provided here concerning Israel, her combat patterns and protection actions, and her unconditional fortitude and talents to protect herself (besides the preempt strikes on Hezbollah and Iran in Syria). For beyond a doubt, Israel will truly do what is necessary to protect the Jewish State of Israel. USA will do what is necessary to protect Israel.
Consequently, as the new-comer back into the Middle East arena, the new dominate player in Syria, Russia, by illuminating their superb regional understanding of historical and prospective chaotic events, and bestowing restraint when required, for example in relation to Israel’s distress of threats, absolute tenacity and concrete pledge to protect itself, wise and esteemed individuals, such as President Vladimir Putin, can do much in determining (along with Israel and USA) whether this ongoing catastrophe remains isolated, regional, or instantaneously ruptures into a global nuclear war.