Pakistan’s ballistic missile program a risk to the US and its allies

The outgoing Biden administration has announced new sanctions on Pakistan’s ballistic middle program. Pakistan has sharply criticized these sanctions, labeling them as “discriminatory” and warning they pose significant risks to regional peace and stability. The US government considers Pakistan a potential supplier to state and non-state actors in the region, especially the Houthis, who have increased their sophistication and intensified their attacks against Israel.

In a statement released Thursday, Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs condemned the sanctions, arguing they undermine strategic stability not only in South Asia but also globally. The ministry accused the US of “double standards,” citing Washington’s waivers for advanced military technology transfers to other nations. The sanctions freeze any US-based property belonging to the targeted Pakistani entities and prohibit American companies and citizens from conducting business with them.

The US Department of State identified the Islamabad-based National Development Complex (NDC) as a key target of the sanctions. The NDC has allegedly sought materials to support Pakistan’s long-range ballistic missile development, including the SHAHEEN missile series. Other sanctioned entities include Akhtar and Sons Private Limited, Affiliates International, and Rockside Enterprise.

The sanctions follow earlier US measures against foreign entities, including a Chinese research institute, accused of collaborating with the NDC. Washington alleges that the NDC is at the forefront of efforts to develop Pakistan’s advanced missile capabilities, which extend beyond conventional regional deterrence.

Concerns Over Technology Transfer to Non-State Actors

Adding to the international alarm is the risk of Pakistan’s advanced missile technology being supplied to non-state actors. Analysts and officials have raised concerns about the potential for such technology to find its way to groups like Yemen’s Houthi rebels. In February a US court extended the detention of a Pakistani national charged with attempting to smuggle Iranian made missile parts, including a warhead to Yemen’s Houthi rebels.

The Houthis recently demonstrated their growing missile capabilities with a ballistic missile strike on Israel amidst the ongoing regional conflict. If sophisticated long-range missile technology were to reach such groups, it could significantly escalate threats not just in the Middle East but also globally.

Deputy National Security Adviser Jon Finer, speaking at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, highlighted Pakistan’s missile development as a growing concern. He noted that the country’s advancements, including increasingly sophisticated long-range ballistic missiles and equipment capable of testing larger rocket motors, represent a broader security risk.

“Pakistan’s actions raise real questions about the aims of its ballistic missile program,” Finer said. He emphasized that continued development could enable Pakistan to strike targets well beyond South Asia, potentially reaching as far as the United States.

Regional and Global Implications

Pakistan’s ballistic missile program has long been a focal point of its strategic rivalry with India. Both countries frequently test a range of missile systems, underscoring their tense bilateral relationship. However, the potential for Pakistani technology to be shared with non-state actors or rogue regimes adds a dangerous new dimension to the situation.

The US sanctions aim to curb such proliferation risks, but Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has framed them as a geopolitical maneuver to undermine its security framework. Islamabad, a declared nuclear power since 1998, views its missile program as integral to its defense capabilities.

Escalating Tensions

The implications of these sanctions extend far beyond Pakistan’s borders. The possibility of advanced missile technology proliferating to groups like the Houthis highlights a pressing global security challenge. Recent missile strikes on Israel and other targets have showcased the devastating potential of such capabilities when wielded by non-state actors.

The US government’s actions, along with Deputy National Security Adviser Finer’s remarks, signal a heightened concern over Pakistan’s trajectory. Finer warned that if trends persist, Pakistan’s ballistic missile advancements could not only destabilize South and West Asia but also pose a direct threat to the US and its allies.

In response, Pakistan has insisted that its missile program is defensive and called for equitable treatment in international nonproliferation regimes. However, the broader geopolitical and security ramifications of its actions continue to draw intense scrutiny.

The situation underscores the urgent need for multilateral dialogue to address both state and non-state actor proliferation risks, ensuring that missile technology does not further destabilize already volatile regions.