Real Iran regime change in Iran, real victory

President Trump has at times stated clearly that a real regime change is needed in Iran, one that removes the existing regime and establishes one on fundamentally different foundations. He has made an important start on the job.

Our best Gulf State allies have stated equally clearly why we must finish the job.

We need to heed their call. Their necks are on the line already; our neck will be on the line later if we fall short.

It is time to finish the job.

No fake “Venezuela model”

The much-touted “Venezuela model” doesn’t achieve regime change. Even in Venezuela it has fallen far short of that. It needs to be frankly put aside and replaced with solid planning about what to do.

In fact, it is our Venezuela policy that would be redeemed by making a more thorough regime change in Iran, not Iran that’s redeemed by making a superficial change as in Venezuela.

If we do all that’s needed to get a real regime change in Iran, the regime in Venezuela – it’s basically the Maduro regime minus Maduro – will get the message and realize that it needs to adapt more fully to our demands. For now it is doing the minimum it can; it’s hoping to wait Trump out and then revert to type. If we fail to make a full regime change in Iran, we will lose in Venezuela too.

Thus, by now, in order to become serious on Venezuela, we must hurry up and get serious on Iran. We must make a real regime change there, not a pretend one.

Time for Trump to Scrap False Models and False Slogans

Trump rightly rejects Obama’s worst legacies. Yet he could still replicate them.

To avoid this, he needs to finally stop his acolytes from replicating the thinking that underlay them – the slogans against actually replacing a bad regime, the slogans against actually winning our wars on the ground, the slogans against doing anything more with our huge military than just smashing up other people.

For a couple centuries, American leaders had a fairly good idea of when it made sense to promote democracy and when it made sense to change a regime. The criteria were: when the evidence indicated it was likely to work, and when it also would serve our interests. We usually knew when not to do it, too: when it was likely to harm our interests and come out bad to boot.

We knew that the main thing was to figure out the best thing to do in each circumstance. We were pragmatists. That pragmatism was our only fixed model.

We made dozens of regime changes that way, first in our continental expansion, then in our global affairs. Most of them were highly successful.

Thanks to that pragmatic idealism, we advanced in the world. We expanded our domain continentally. We expanded our influence globally. Our democratic ways spread naturally alongside our power and influence.

We need to get back to that.

Today’s Overriding Need

Today, there is one overriding practical need in the Middle East: to make a full regime change in Iran. Pragmatism mandates it. So does morality.

Trump has stated many times the reasons why it’s necessary to make a real regime change in Iran. And several times found the courage to state the reasons why it’s worth seeing it through and paying a real price for it, not just the token price preferred by his most feckless followers think should be the end of the matter.

The reasons have been compelling. Because the Iranian regime has been on the verge of building a missile and drone deterrent force against our ever acting to denuclearize it. Because, if we waited and let it get the shield of that deterrent, it would proceed inexorably to get its nuclear weapons. Because it would almost certainly use its nukes. Because it would use them for genocidal purposes, not just for military purposes. And because, while we wouldn’t be first in line to get nuked, we would indeed be in line for it down the road.

These reasons are not just compelling; they are existential. Trump’s urgent need today is to act on them.