Recognition or Risk? Israel’s Somaliland Gamble
On December 26, 2025, Israel took an unexpected, and feared by many, step in becoming the first United Nations member state to formally recognize the Republic of Somaliland as a Sovereign State. The announcement, made by Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, came at the end of a long year of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East as well as Africa.
Somaliland, a self declared republic in Northeast Africa, has existed controversially independent from Somalia since 1991. However, the republic has long been denied formal diplomatic recognition. For years, its leaders have lobbied across the world, but never thought that Israel would provide the support they needed. Somaliland urgently wants recognition from any state. From Israel, it could mean diplomatic legitimacy, security, advancements in technology and agriculture. Netanyahu pursued this initiative in the spirit of continuing the Abraham Accords to promote regional and global peace and deepen ties beyond the Red Sea.
But why did Israel make the move?
Supporters of the recognition frame it as pragmatic. Somaliland has demonstrated effective governance on their own and relative stability in comparison to their neighbor, Somalia, which other states and many international organizations view as war-torn and underdeveloped. By recognizing Somaliland’s sovereignty, Israel positions itself as a partner to a country that may one day serve as a bridge between East Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. Considering that Israel is situated among many states that have declared themselves to be its enemies, Netanyahu is smart to reach for allies wherever he can.
US diplomats, such as deputy US ambassador to the UN Tammy Bruce, have even defended Israel’s choice at an emergency session at the United Nations, comparing it to states’ recognitions of Palestine and arguing that Israel has the same right as any other country to form diplomatic ties with whomever it chooses.
From Jerusalem’s perspective, the decision is also geographically strategic. Somaliland sits by the Bab El-Mandeb Strait, the checkpoint linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, which the Houthis actively try to control. So, Netanyahu’s choice is strategic from an economic standpoint. If something happens at the Strait, it is felt by global trade. Establishing relations there could expand Israel’s reach past the Mediterranean and the Gulf. Israel is also focused on planning and deterrence. Having a presence in the Horn of Africa means it has eyes on shipping lanes. It can also counter Iran-aligned activity. It is a classic example of preventing problems before they reach you.
Almost immediately, Somalia condemned the act as a violation of its sovereignty and a wave of protests also broke out in Somalia, underscoring the deep political and emotional wounds this decision aggravated. Mogadishu reiterated that Somaliland is legally part of Somalia and vowed to protect its borders using all political and legal measures.
Many Arab and Muslim-majority states also condemned Israel’s move arguing it violates international law and threatens regional stability. Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Iran, Iraq and others released joint denunciations showing support for Somalian unity.
The U.S. took a more nuanced stance: the government did not condemn Israel but instead criticized what it saw as a double-standard when it comes to the recognition of states. At the same time, President Donald Trump reportedly was not ready to recognize Somaliland, emphasizing that he was focused on the Gaza-ceasefire and reconstruction.
Was it worth it?
Recognition is often more symbolic than transformative. Somaliland is still largely unrecognized by the rest of the world. The practical effects of Israel’s endorsement are highly limited until other countries follow. However, symbolism is a key factor in diplomacy. Recognition equals legitimacy and paves the road for bilateral cooperation. Whether this gamble reveals itself to be a profitable strategic investment or acts as a catalyst for greater conflict remains to be seen.
