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Ofer Israeli

Release of Hostages and the Destruction of Hamas

The accelerated release of Israeli hostages held by Hamas and the destruction of the military capabilities of the terrorist organization may appear to be contradictory objectives, but they are both necessary and achievable simultaneously.

The leaders handling this crisis are masters of the possible—a pattern well known from Israeli domestic politics. However, many of them lack the skill of achieving the impossible, which is the foundation of successful strategy on the international stage. A vivid and unfortunately successful example of this was witnessed on October 7, when Mohammed Deif and Yahya Sinwar, despite their limited resources and numerical inferiority, managed to overpower the Gaza Division and overcome Israeli security forces—IDF, Shin Bet, and the police—who fought with their bodies to defend the communities surrounding Gaza.

A Two-Stage Approach to Achieving the Goals

Achieving both essential and justified objectives—the accelerated release of hostages and the destruction of Hamas—must be carried out in two stages. In the first stage, Israel must fully utilize all elements of the agreements signed with Hamas to release as many hostages as possible—both living and deceased—leveraging every available pressure mechanism while maintaining the agreements brokered by the US, Qatar, and Egypt.

In the second stage, while continuing the release of hostages, Jerusalem must apply multidimensional pressure, strengthen pragmatic factions within Hamas, and create a reality that forces the organization to either disarm or be annihilated.

Necessary Steps for the Success of the Second Stage

Creating an internal split within Hamas is crucial to achieving the goal. A “controlled rebellion” should be encouraged to fracture the leadership, eliminate prominent opponents of the deal, and apply cognitive pressure on the Gaza population as leverage against Hamas leadership.

Economic pressure and incentives for pragmatic factions serve as another tool. Safe exit routes should be offered to factions supporting a deal, with assurances of immunity and economic incentives. Simultaneously, assassinations of those opposing the deal should be intensified.

Implementing a significant strategic threat will help drive the process forward. The “Trump Plan” for the removal of Gaza’s residents should be used wisely, at least on a theoretical level, by establishing a US-Israeli mechanism, constructing an exit port, and deploying massive ships along Gaza’s coastline. These measures would demonstrate to Hamas that its insistence on ruling Gaza will lead to the destruction of the Palestinian national vision and a third ‘Nakba’—this time with no possibility of recovery.

Mediators serve as another effective tool for pushing Hamas out of Gaza, with the added consequence of dismantling the organization’s military capabilities. Following the publication of the Trump Plan, Egypt faces pressure to either resolve the Gaza issue or confront a scenario in which thousands of unwanted Palestinians begin moving toward Rafah, encouraged by the US president. Qatar, Hamas’s primary financier and ideological-economic backbone, is the key to the solution by broadcasting the message that, in the name of “Muslim Brotherhood solidarity”, the wealthy Gulf state is willing to absorb 2.2 million Palestinians while simultaneously reducing its reliance on 2.5 million foreign workers. Effective messaging on this front will compel Doha to exert its significant influence to push Hamas leadership into exile while ensuring the release of all hostages.

Reasserting Control Over Gaza

After the hostage release phase is exhausted, Israel must redefine control over Gaza. Safe zones designated exclusively for civilians should be established, where food and humanitarian aid can be delivered to enable normal life. Meanwhile, high-risk areas should be created, concentrating Hamas leadership and the hostages they use as “human shields”. These zones should remain under strict siege, isolating opponents of the deal and systematically dismantling their military capabilities.

Ultimatum and Conclusion of the Conflict

If Hamas leaders entrench themselves in their positions, Israel must simultaneously activate all available pressure mechanisms. Jerusalem must publicly implement the Trump Plan and provide an opportunity for mass emigration from Gaza. Concurrently, the IDF must escalate military pressure on the hiding places of Hamas leadership.

Ultimately, if Hamas refuses to leave for exile, hostage rescue operations must be executed wherever Israeli intelligence identifies their locations. These operations will inevitably exact a heavy toll, both among the hostages and Israeli forces. However, leaving our people in the hands of Hamas is the worst possible option. Their slow death or brutal execution is an unacceptable scenario.

Israel’s failure to issue an ultimatum to Hamas for the immediate release of hostages at the outset of the war was a grave mistake. This should have been the central war objective, around which all other strategic goals were aligned. The failure to do so represents a severe breach of the national promise: “Never again!”

As Jews and Israelis, while we criticize Western powers for their past inaction—such as their refusal to bomb the railways leading to Auschwitz—we must also look in the mirror. We too delayed action while our people suffered in Hamas’s tunnels. The time for action has long passed; now, it must be carried out immediately, even if it is a late and possibly too-late attempt to correct the many failures of the Israeli leadership that led to the catastrophe of October 7.

About the Author
Dr. Ofer Israeli— geopolitician and geostrategist, is a complexity theoretician of international relations and Middle East expert from Reichman University and the Ashkelon Academic College, Israel. Dr. Israeli’s fourth book, Complexity Effects in Middle East Conflicts, will be published soon.
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