Severe Weather Potential Late Late This Week

After a severe cold outbreak with steady rains, our weather will turn unusually warm — and then dangerously stormy.

Temperatures will warm to balmy levels by midday Friday, increasing by almost 20 C from our current cold weather lows. However, a cold front will sweep through our area late Friday and herald in much cooler and stormy weather.

The temperature contrast between the surface and upper atmosphere, as well as the availability of moisture combined with strong wind shear means that very strong thunderstorms could form late Shabbat into Sunday. Prior to that, there could be some showers and weaker thunderstorms, but the storms late Shabbat and Sunday could be severe — as noted by my colleague Yaakov Cantor. In fact, tornadoes are even possible.

On Monday, another storm will develop to our south, but it may skirt by just to our east.  If not, rain will continue into Monday, and since it will be accompanied by dust, thunderstorms and hail are again possible.

There was an interesting article about the extreme warmth we suffered in 2023. The authors suggested that it could be explained in part by “natural variability,” i.e., cyclic variations in ocean temperatures, etc. The results of this paper were seized upon by a blogger (incorrectly) to suggest that natural variability by itself was the reason for the extreme temperatures. Yet, one needs to keep in mind that what we call natural variability now occurs on a warmer and wetter base state. This means that extremes become more likely.

For instance, storms such as those we should experience late this week are more likely to have additional moisture from which to build upon than in the past (when temperatures were cooler than they are now). More moisture means more latent heat release and stronger vertical velocities. This leads  to stronger downdrafts with heavier precipitation and hail, as well as stronger surface winds, in addition to the potential for tornadoes as noted above when storms develop in strong wind shear.

As I wrote previously, there are consequences to global warming, and to insist that all will be well with us because temperatures have (for other reasons) been warmer than in the past ignores the current state of our existence within a period of  relative beneficial climate tranquility.

Please follow the latest weather forecasts and stay safe!