Syria’s Collapse: A New Threat to Israel

Assad’s fall reshaped Middle East dynamics, escalating threats to Israel amid rising extremism.

The collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, a turning point in the decades-long Syrian civil war, has set the stage for a drastically different Middle East. While many see Assad’s defeat as a blow to Iranian influence and a big win for Israel, the reality is far more complex and disheartening.

The rebel group now dominating Syria risks replacing the predictable relationships under Assad with widespread chaos. This shift introduces not just unpredictability but also direct security threats for Israel, undermining the assumption that Assad’s downfall is a victory for the Jewish state.

Syria was a cornerstone of Iran’s control over the Middle East. Under Assad, it served as a critical hub in the so-called ‘land bridge’ that connected Tehran to Hezbollah in Lebanon. Through Syria, Iran transported weapons, funds, and fighters, strengthening Hezbollah’s stance in its ongoing conflict with Israel.

The Iranian supply route through Syria has delivered tens of thousands of advanced rockets and missiles to Hezbollah, which now is thought to possess an arsenal exceeding 150,000 rockets capable of striking deep into Israeli territory.

Israel has destroyed much of Hezbollah’s weapons supply, and with Assad out, Iran’s trail to Hezbollah has been disrupted, complicating Iran’s logistics. Yet, this disruption fails to equate to an end of Iranian ambitions.

Instead, Tehran may redirect its efforts through maritime routes using the Mediterranean or air channels, increasing the potential for interception by Iranian adversaries but also for escalated conflict with Israel on new fronts.

For years, Assad’s regime was a predictable enemy of Israel. While it engaged in occasional attacks and supported groups like Hezbollah, Assad carefully avoided provoking full-scale conflict with the Jewish state. His regime maintained a level of control over Syrian territory, limiting the ability of extremist groups such as Al-Qaeda to operate freely. This control allowed for relative stability on Israel’s northern border.

Syria’  decades-long  predictability is now shattered. With Assad’s downfall, the state is no longer a singular nation but a fractured region with competing Islamist groups, many of which harbor deep animosity toward Israel. The most prominent group to emerge is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a designated terrorist organization rooted in Al-Qaeda’s ideology.

HTS, founded initially as Jabhat al-Nusra in 2012, became Al-Qaeda’s official partner in Syria before later distancing itself from the group to broaden its appeal. However, its leadership and ideology remain firmly tied to Al-Qaeda’s global jihadist movement.

By 2022, HTS presumed control over significant parts of Syria’s northwest, particularly in the Idlib province, with a fighting force estimated at over 30,000 terrorists. These fighters include foreign jihadists and former Al-Qaeda operatives, making HTS one of the most powerful— and dangerous—extremist groups in the region.

HTS has made no secret of its hostility toward Israel. Recently, its leadership has issued repeated threats, calling for the liberation of Jerusalem and vowing to target Israeli territory. While the group’s primary focus remains on consolidating power in Syria, its anti-Israel rhetoric raises concerns about future confrontations, significantly as the group expands its presence near the Golan Heights.

Under Assad, terrorist activity from Syria into Israel was minimal due to the regime’s tight border control. However, the current disorganization in Syria has opened opportunities for groups like Al-Qaeda to exploit the instability.

In 2023 alone, Israeli forces intercepted at least two smuggling attempts involving weapons and explosives along the Syrian border, underscoring the growing threat.

Jordan, which shares a 360-kilometer boundary with Israel, has historically faced tensions with extremist groups operating near its borders, including the HTS. The rise of HTS in Syria comes with a serious threat to Jordan’s stability, given its proximity to Jordanian territory.

HTS has engaged in cross-border activities in the past, including attempts to smuggle weapons and fighters into Jordan. In 2016, Jordanian forces intercepted an arms shipment linked to the HTS, illustrating the risk the HTS poses to Jordan.

HTS’s takeover of Syria raises the likelihood of increased cross-border violence. Jordan’s refugee camps, which currently house over 1.3 million displaced Syrians, could also become targets for radicalization or recruitment. The potential spread of HTS’s ideology within vulnerable refugee populations will result in a significant increase in terrorism globally.

The Jordanian military, which has successfully conducted counterterrorism operations against ISIS and other extremist factions, now faces the challenge of monitoring an increasingly unstable border with Syria. A 2022 report by the Jordanian Armed Forces highlighted a surge in smuggling incidents along the Syrian border, many involving drugs and weapons trafficked by groups like the HTS.

For Israel, a destabilized Jordan is a matter of significant concern. Jordan remains one of Israel’s most cooperative neighbors, with both nations sharing a peace treaty since 1994. If HTS succeeds in undermining Jordan’s security, it could disrupt this vital alliance and force Israel to reallocate military resources, further straining its defense capabilities amid rising threats on other fronts.

The potential for HTS to destabilize Jordan, either through confrontation or by exploiting refugee and smuggling networks, poses a serious risk. Such instability would threaten Jordan’s internal affairs and hurt regional security, making it a significant concern for Western democracy.

The United States has adopted a cautious approach to Syria. The Obama administration’s reluctance to intervene in 2013, despite Assad’s use of chemical weapons, set a precedent for limited U.S. engagement.

The absence of the U.S. has left Israel alone in managing the results of Syria’s collapse, forcing it to rely on military actions like airstrikes against military targets within Syria. These strikes, while effective in the short term, risk escalating tensions and drawing Israel into broader conflicts.

For Israel, the absence of strong external partners in Syria is not necessarily a benefit. While a decreased presence from Iran in Syria does have its benefits for Israel, it may not translate into reduced aggression. On the contrary, Tehran may double down on its support for proxies like the Houthis and Hamas, redirecting its efforts toward destabilizing Israel through other fronts.

Despite the challenges, the fragmentation of Syria does offer some short-term advantages for Israel. Traditional adversaries, like Hezbollah, have been weakened. Yet, these gains are unlikely to last; the rise of extremist groups like HTS poses a long-term danger that could surpass the challenges presented by Assad’s regime.

As HTS consolidates power, its anti-Israel agenda may become more actionable, particularly if it secures backing from regional powers like Turkey or Qatar. The group’s access to advanced weaponry, such as drones or surface-to-air missiles, will further complicate Israel’s ability to defend its airspace and territory.

The collapse of Assad’s regime marks the end of an era but does not guarantee stability or security for Israel. Instead, it brings in a period of heightened uncertainty, where new threats emerge. While Israel may not face immediate danger from the new Syrian regime, there is a serious potential for future conflict.

Israel’s challenge is to adapt swiftly to this new reality, reorganizing its military and diplomatic strategies to address both immediate risks and long-term threats. As the region reshapes itself, support for Israel will be crucial in ensuring its security and maintaining the pillar of democracy in an increasingly radicalized Middle East.