Tehran Troubles

In June 1941, the German Wehrmacht launched Operation Barbarossa, an invasion of the USSR that Hitler was convinced would last only a few months. Hitler believed that after the officer purges, the Holodomor in Ukraine, and Stalin’s general shredding of society, Germany only needed to “kick the door in” and the Soviet Union would fall apart. We all know how that ended: with Germany’s defeat and the empowering of the USSR.

Now, eighty years later, the American and Israeli governments have decided to repeat this level of strategic blunder with a reckless war against Iran. It is a campaign characterized by a total lack of planning or forethought. We believed we could simply “kick the door in” and the Iranian government would come tumbling down. Just as the Germans ignored the possibility of brutal Russian winters, the American and Israeli governments seem shocked that the Iranians have closed the Straits of Hormuz.

What was the thinking, if there was any, behind this campaign? It seems Donald Trump looked at the anti-government unrest in Iran earlier this year and figured that by knocking off the Iranian leadership, a new pro-American government would magically appear. Such a fantasy is understandable for an ignoramus like Trump, but for Israelis, our main concern is with Bibi Netanyahu. For all the damage Bibi has done to Israel, it is hard to argue that he is a fool or incapable of strategic thinking. How could he not have understood the danger he was exposing Israel to?

Let us not underestimate the damage this war has already done and may continue to do. There is a small chance that Israel’s strategic position will improve if the Iranian government collapses and is replaced by a Western-friendly regime, but the odds of achieving this through an air campaign are slim to none. In poker terms, it is like putting all your chips in the pot assuming you’ll draw to an inside straight.

Another possible outcome is a total breakdown of the Iranian government leading to complete chaos. While that might hinder Iran’s ability to support its proxies, chaos has rarely worked in Israel’s favor. We may end up with wildcat groups in Iran firing missiles at Israel with no central authority to hold accountable, while suffering decades of economic disruption for which Israel will be blamed.

The most likely long-term outcome of this war will be a strengthened Iran and a greatly weakened Israel. This is due to three main factors:

• Control of the Straits: This war has given Iran the opportunity to close the Straits of Hormuz while shifting the blame to Israel and the US. In the future, Iran may assert ownership of the straits and charge tolls, empowering them both politically and economically.
• The Price of Oil: No matter the outcome, oil prices will remain high for a significant period. High oil prices put more money in our enemies’ pockets for weapons and propaganda. For those on the right, this creates a dilemma: high prices help American billionaires, and if they have to choose between Israel’s security and billionaires, we know which way they will choose.
• The Loss of American Support: This is the most disastrous negative effect of the current situation. While the war in Gaza damaged American support, the Iranian campaign has cemented Israel’s status as the “bad guy” for vast swathes of the American public. By instigating an unpopular war, Israel has sacrificed its greatest strategic asset: its relationship with the US. We can no longer claim we don’t ask American soldiers to bleed for us.

It is hard to say what Bibi hoped to gain. Perhaps he thought he could score quick political points and call a snap election before the full price of the war became due. One thing is clear: Israel’s leadership has failed us, exchanging effective financial sanctions for a military campaign that may well strengthen the Iranian regime and endanger Israel’s future.