The 2024 Campaign at the Crossroads: Ten Factors That Can Impact the Outcome

With less than 90 days to this year’s contest, the following generic factors are likely to be in play:

Impact of 3^rd Parties: In 2016, 3^rd parties did impact the outcome, not so much however in 2020. At this point, it may be too early to determine if one or more of the third-party candidates (We The People, Libertarians, Greens) will affect the 2024 outcome.

The Debate Effect: Measuring the impact of a candidate’s performance, who’s voters might it alter? Will it drive some independents or undecideds toward a particular party?

The Life Expectancy of Party Conventions: How long and how deep will be the impact of the respective party conventions, probably not very long, but some voters are likely to be “moved” by a speaker or action at these gatherings.

Voter Turn-Out and Who’s Voters? It’s all about the last 10-15% of likely voters? Will they show up, and for whom?

The Money Card: And here we are talking about late $ that will be provided, making it possible for a campaign to do more PR, organizing and rallies. A slight financial edge can make an impact on growing voter support.

Endorsements: Why it matters. Entertainment figures, as an example,  can play a key role in building momentum and in swaying some “undecided” voter.

Momentum: But how do you measure it, possibly by the size of a candidate’s rallies, the arrival of new campaign gifts, voter registration, the number of volunteers, and turn out?

Weather: Yes, weather can and does influence voting numbers on election day.

Polling: Do polls matter? In the end, it will be all about voter turn-out. In 2016 polls clearly did not, in 2020, polling made a difference. Regardless, both parties rely on polling data to determine message, strategy and priority states that are “in play”.  In connection with this fall’s election, we now have several additional “Jewish” polls, including the Jewish Electorate Institute’s most recent findings: https://www.jewishelectorateinstitute.org/polls/.

The Unexpected: What can go wrong, will go wrong! No way to know what “trigger factor” might influence the final outcome in what appears to be a very tight election!

As we move closer to election day, each of these elements may likely play a roll in the 2024 campaign.