The Blue Wave Opportunity: Post 1
The Opportunity Presented by the Blue Wave
What It Means for America, Jews, and Israel
I’ve spent the last week analyzing the results of the historic Blue Wave midterm election in the United States which enabled the Democratic Party to take control of both the House and Senate. The questions I focused on are twofold: What is the mandate that the Blue Wave has given the new Democratic Majority and what does it mean for the future of U.S. relations with Israel and for Jews in America.
Going into the election I had a great deal of trepidation that a Democratic victory would cement the power of the Democratic Socialist of America aligned extremist wing of the Party and empowering them to advance their antisemitic, anti-Israel agenda. Now I do not think it is that simple. In fact, I think that the Blue Wave provides a real, albeit narrow, opportunity to not only stem the tide of their influence, but to begin to repair the U.S. Israeli relationship.
The following post explains why I feel this way boiled down to five takeaways. A second post, soon to follow this, explains why I think there is an opportunity. These two posts summarize a larger analytical essay that I am working on. Interested readers should feel free to contact me if they are interested in receiving that document.
Five Key Takeaways
1. The Blue Wave was a revolt against Trump, not an embrace of the Democratic Party.
The election was driven by widespread anger, disillusionment, and, among some former Trump supporters, a sense of betrayal. But opposition to Trump alone does not fully explain the scale of the Democratic victories. Voters, particularly independents, younger Americans, and former Trump supporters, responded to individual Democratic candidates who understood their concerns and offered credible approaches to affordability, health care, economic security, and responsible government. They voted for people they trusted, not necessarily for a party they liked.
- The new Democratic majority was elected on a practical agenda, not a mandate for the radical left.
The DSA-associated wing of the Democratic Party remains a relatively small faction of the new majority, notwithstanding the disproportionate attention its victories received. Its ideological agenda was not what drove the Blue Wave. The much larger group of Democrats who won by appealing to voters’ everyday concerns has both the numerical strength and the political incentive to pursue a more pragmatic course. Whether they exercise that strength—and resist attempts by the radical left to define the party’s priorities—will be one of the central tests of the new Congress.
3. Israel did not determine the election, despite its prominence in political discourse.
The U.S.-Israel relationship, opposition to Israel, and controversies surrounding AIPAC received enormous attention, but they were not among the principal issues driving voters’ decisions. Americans were overwhelmingly concerned with Trump, the economy, their quality of life, and the conduct of government. The visibility of anti-Israel candidates and rhetoric should not be confused with an electoral mandate for their positions. That distinction creates political space for a different approach to Israel within the Democratic Party.
- The Trump-era U.S.-Israel relationship is ending, but a mutually beneficial relationship remains possible.
We should have no illusions about restoring a relationship in which American and Israeli leaders appear to operate in lockstep. Nor should that be our objective. Historically, the two countries have maintained a strong relationship despite substantial disagreements, grounded in shared democratic principles, strategic interests, and mutual respect for their sovereignty. Much of today’s hostility toward Israel is also entangled with attitudes toward Trump, Netanyahu, and the recent wars. As those circumstances change, there may be an opportunity to rebuild a more traditional, durable relationship—one based on common interests rather than personal political alliances or unconditional agreement.
- The future is not predetermined. We have agency, and the responsibility to exercise it.
The Blue Wave has created an opening, not a guarantee. Whether the new Democratic majority fulfills its mandate, whether the radical left gains disproportionate influence, and whether the U.S.-Israel relationship can be repaired will depend on decisions that have yet to be made. The Jewish community cannot afford to remain on the sidelines, nor can it succeed by focusing exclusively on Jewish issues. We need to build alliances with other Americans committed to constitutional democracy, equal citizenship, responsible government, and the principles on which the country was founded. Our task is not simply to defend Israel or combat antisemitism, but to help restore the American political culture in which Jews, Israel, and all Americans can flourish.
