The Day After the Ceasefire: Between Trump, Hamas, Iran, and Israel’s Political

The ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, brokered by U.S. President Donald Trump, marks a temporary end to a long and painful war — but it is far from being peace. As the dust settles, the real questions begin: What truly lies behind this deal? Will it hold? What’s next in Israel’s tense relationship with Iran? What will the “day after” in Gaza look like? And can Israel’s government survive the political earthquake now unfolding?

The Trump Deal – Ceasefire or Calculated Pause?

Trump’s move is a blend of American, Israeli, and Arab interests: the return of Israeli hostages, a humanitarian truce, and the beginning of a broader diplomatic process aimed at “closing the circle” of the Abraham Accords.

But history teaches that every agreement with Hamas is, by nature, temporary. Hamas is not an organization that lays down its arms willingly — it is a religious-military movement that thrives on the narrative of “resistance.” Even if it declares the dismantling of its governing apparatus or scales back its military wing, it is unlikely to give up its underground operational capacity or its deeply rooted ideological infrastructure.

The population in Gaza is exhausted, hungry, and increasingly alienated from Hamas leadership — yet it still sees no real alternative. As long as a renewed, stable, and uncorrupted Palestinian Authority does not emerge, the power vacuum will remain dangerous.

This poses a major challenge for Israel: if Hamas returns to fighting later on, the IDF may find itself back inside Gaza — this time without international legitimacy.

The Day After in Gaza: Between Reconstruction and Endless Ruin

The Gaza Strip lies in ruins. Hundreds of thousands are homeless, water and power infrastructures are destroyed, the healthcare system has collapsed, and rebuilding could take years. The world is watching Israel, expecting it to lead a responsible reconstruction process alongside Arab and Western nations.

If Israel allows monitored international aid and encourages the rise of a local, civilian, non-terrorist leadership, it could reshape the global perception of its role — from a state fighting in Gaza to a state leading regional transformation. If not, the images of poverty and despair will soon replace those of war, and the criticism will return swiftly.

Iran: Deterred but Not Defeated

Regionally, Iran will likely use the pause to reassert its influence in Lebanon, Yemen, and Syria. Yet Tehran also realizes that Israel has demonstrated unmatched military superiority and intelligence capabilities.

The renewed alliance between Israel, the United States, and the Gulf states places Iran on the defensive — forcing it to decide whether to continue down the path of provocation or pivot toward a new diplomatic track. Hezbollah, having seen the heavy price Hamas paid, will likely avoid a full-scale confrontation for now. The new equation is clear: any attack on Israel will provoke devastating retaliation — but Israel, too, must exercise calculated restraint.

Abraham Accords 2.0 – Who’s Next?

The ceasefire reignites the dream of a “New Middle East.” Trump has already hinted at another round of normalization deals — potentially involving Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, and perhaps, for the first time, Lebanon. Syria remains a more complex case, but even there an economic opening via Russian mediation might emerge.
If this effort succeeds, Israel could once again be seen as a legitimate regional partner rather than a pariah. Economic, energy, and technological cooperation could become the most effective tools for countering extremism.

Israel’s Political Crossroads – A Government on the Edge

Domestically, the coming weeks promise political turbulence. The Hamas agreement, even with Trump’s mediation, challenges the ideological foundations of Israel’s far right.

Ben Gvir and Smotrich have already hinted at the possibility of withdrawing from the coalition, claiming that Israel has “surrendered to terror.” Should they follow through, Prime Minister Netanyahu will face two options: dissolve the government and call for new elections, or attempt to form a temporary unity government with the centrist-left bloc to back the diplomatic process.

Both scenarios carry political risk — but also a potential turning point in Israel’s political structure.

And What of Hamas?

This is the great question. Will Hamas truly disarm and become a civilian body, or will it continue operating underground as it has in the past? Experience shows that Hamas’s ideology does not die — it merely adapts.

However, this time, the circumstances may have genuinely shifted: the Palestinian public is weary, the international community is more unified, and the Qatari-Egyptian leadership increasingly views Hamas in its current form as an obstacle, not an asset.

Temporary Calm or Historic Opportunity?

This ceasefire is not the end of the war — it is a test of the region’s maturity. If Israel uses this moment to take initiative, rebuild, and help craft a new regional order, it will emerge stronger and more respected than ever. But if it succumbs once again to revenge politics and internal divisions, it will return to the same vicious cycle of bloodshed it sought to escape.

In the Middle East, calm is never an ending — it is merely an intermission. The question is: who will use this time to write the next chapter?

Those who act with vision — who lead and demonstrate a genuine desire to steer the region toward a new, better future for its peoples — will earn lasting credibility.

If Israel takes the lead in such an effort, it will shape a new diplomatic image: not as a state that seeks war, but as one that strives for sustainable security and genuine coexistence. Such a move would make it much harder for critics — in both the West and the Arab world — to accuse it of “genocide” or regional aggression.

It would also strip the justification from extremists worldwide who, under the banner of “pro-Palestinian solidarity,” commit acts of vandalism in the very countries that gave them shelter. Without “Israel” as an excuse, their true motives — imposing Sharia law over democratic principles, pursuing a silent demographic takeover — would stand exposed.

A world that understands this reality will be freer to defend its homelands, once the masks are off and the old excuse — “because of Israel” — no longer holds.

Yair Marton
Strategic Advisor & Crisis Management Specialist