The Fall of Assad – Israel should hope for the best but expect the worst

Fourteen years of bloody civil war; 300,000+ civilians killed; apathetic media coverage compared to the Israel-Palestinian conflict. The Assad regime has finally fallen.

How the various rebel forces were able to unite, sweep across Syria, capture Aleppo, Homs, and Damascus, and completely topple the regime it had been fighting for more than a decade – in a matter of several days – is a conversation on its own. There is much we don’t know about how these events unfolded that will be clearer in the weeks and months ahead. Israel’s defanging of Assad’s allies, Iran and their proxy Hezbollah, is an obvious factor, as is Russia’s Ukraine-related military and financial degradation. – but again, to what extent, is a whole other topic.

What should Israel expect from the new regime in Syria, and of its leader, designated terrorist, and former Al-Qaeda commander: al-Julani – who now assumes a newly branded persona as a heroic revolutionary, and plays to CNN interviews. How genuine are his words when he states that he desires peaceful relations with Israel compared to the Iranian puppet Assad? He says his fight was with Assad only, but now that Assad has fallen, how long until his focus turns to Israel and the West, as other Islamist movements have done? He says one thing, yet his words are coupled with videos of his fighters, brandishing their AK-47s, proclaiming that they will come next for Al-Quds (Jerusalem). How long until Julani insists on “liberating” the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights? In Islamist ideology, after ridding your own land of its non-Islamist ruler, who does not abide by nor enforce strict shariah, it is logical (and expected) to turn your attention to Western infidels in your pursuit of global jihad. Why would these ISIS-flag-flying, Salafi Islamist Syrian rebels be any different? We shouldn’t expect them to be. But may we hope?

Based on Israel’s actions in the immediate aftermath of the fall of Damascus, it is fair to say that it knows not to take any chances. While Netanyahu addressed the world by video atop the Golan Heights, exuding optimism for the fall of Assad, and willingness to cooperate with the new regime – he showed strength at the same time. Standing there on Syrian-claimed land with Israeli flags waving, he also expressed his caution and concern, and that Israel would monitor the situation closely, and be ready to defend itself should the new regime turn hostile. In the immediate hours following, Israel began a more offensive posture and seized the Syrian side of the Mount Hermon summit, enlarging the buffer zone between the two countries. This also provides Israel with a strategic vantage point from which to observe both Syria and Lebanon, and to pre-empt any Iranian supplies potentially crossing through Syria to re-arm Hezbollah in Lebanon (which Julani has claimed he will no longer allow). Israel also, in the following few days, destroyed the entirety of the Assad regime’s remaining military bases, fighter jets, naval bases, tanks, missiles, and chemical warfare manufacturing sites (where Assad architected the mass murder of his own civilians). This was not a symbolic act to help Syrian rebels celebrate the fall of Assad and Iranian influence in the region, but a pre-emptive act to ensure that these rebels cannot obtain and use these weapons against Israel. The new Syrian regime would have to start from scratch. One might legitimately argue that these Israeli actions may provoke the rebels – but risk management strategy supports a profound need for Israel’s display of power and deterrence.

That Israel will be cautious and suspicious of the new Syrian regime is an understatement. Even if the rebels form some semblance of control, Syria will likely still be a vessel for political unrest and instability, violence, and religious extremism. While Julani may speak of a Syria for all its citizens, this lacks credibility with a racist, homophobic, Islamist regime in power – especially in Syria, with significant Christian, Alawite, and Kurdish minorities – a quilt of different nations unnaturally sown together by British and French colonial policy. Such a society historically can only be held together by authoritarian leadership. This region, and Syria as a microcosm, has long been wildly unpredictable and messy. Israeli intelligence will now surely assess all possible scenarios, and militarily prepare for any feasible outcome and situation that this new regime may create. Will Julani’s jihadist rebels stop at Syria? Will the former Al-Qaeda leader not turn his attention towards Israel?

It is pointless to speculate whether this new Syrian regime will be better or worse for Israel. All we can do is prepare for an array of possible scenarios, and hope for the best.

Some may argue that, at least under Assad, there has been relative quiet along the Israeli-Syrian border for 50 years. While this is true, I think that for the long-term desired outcome of the greater regional conflict, a weaker Iranian and Russian stronghold at Israel’s doorstep is overall a good thing. So perhaps, Israel should be hopeful. The fall of the Assad regime presents a new opportunity. To be optimistic, however, would be foolish. Luckily, it seems that Israel is not. As Israel’s fourth Prime Minister, Golda Meir, once said: “Pessimism is a luxury that a Jew can never allow himself”.