The Houthi Threat: Time to Change the Game

The war in Gaza has drawn Israel’s attention to the broader challenges emerging in the region, particularly in the Red Sea. For over a year, Iranian-backed Houthi rebels have been targeting ships near the Bab al-Mandab Strait, a crucial transit point for global trade, and launching ballistic missiles and drones toward Israel. As written in the previous column, these attacks have disrupted 12% of global trade and sent shipping costs soaring. Yet, the response—from both Israel and the international community—has been weak at best and poorly directed at worst.

I believe that Israel’s military strategy, which relies heavily on airstrikes, is fundamentally misguided when dealing with an actor like the Houthis. These are not rational players bound by conventional deterrence. The Houthis’ ideological fanaticism, combined with their disregard for civilian well-being, makes them indifferent to the threat of destruction. Moreover, the distance to Yemen is significant, and conducting operations there poses entirely different challenges compared to the relatively routine and geographically closer strikes in Gaza, Lebanon, or Syria. Daily operations in Yemen are neither practical nor cost-effective for Israel. despite five extensive operations in Yemen, the Houthis remain undeterred. If those actions haven’t worked, why should we believe the next ones will? Therefore, I believe that Israel and its allies need fresh ideas and must break free from conventional thinking.

Shifting the Balance in Yemen

The key to addressing the Houthi threat lies not in direct confrontation but in empowering those already on the ground. The Houthis’ tribal infantry forces, once dominant, have lost influence to centralized leadership. This shift creates an opportunity. The Sunni Yemeni government, still reeling from its loss of Sanaa and other territories, is eager to fight back. What it lacks is resources—resources Israel and the West can easily provide.

Israel can transfer its surplus of captured weaponry from Lebanon to the Sunni Yemeni government to strengthen their fight against the rebels. Along with training and intelligence by allies such as US and moderate Sunni’s countries, these supplies would enable Yemeni forces to challenge the Houthis on their own ground. If the Sunni Yemeni government receives the resources it needs, it could launch a campaign against the Houthis in their own territory. This would provide tribal fighters with what they value most—the opportunity to engage in face-to-face battles for their land. Each tribe could showcase its strength, earn prestige, and improve its status while easing their frustrating subordination to centralized Houthi leadership. Such a scenario could create a dynamic where the Houthis are forced to focus on defending their territory rather than escalating attacks in the Red Sea.

Tactical Stopgaps

While long-term solutions take shape, I believe that immediate actions are necessary to mitigate the current threat. First, Israel and the international coalition must dismantle the Houthis’ supply chains. The rebels rely on two primary smuggling routes: one maritime and one aerial. Strengthening naval patrols and carrying out precision strikes on these routes can cut off their supply lines. The American fifth fleet and UK, alongside the highly capable Israeli Air Force, should take the lead in enforcing these blockades.

Second, it is clear that eliminating the Houthi leadership has become a top priority. However, this must be executed quickly and with significant resource allocation. Instead of relying solely on Israel’s intelligence skills, there must be strong collaboration with allies to achieve effective results.

Third, Iran must face repercussions for its support of the Houthis. Iran, their main backer, already exposed to Israel’s capabilities, as evidenced by the recent strike on October. Instead of repeated actions in Yemen, targeted actions against Iranian assets could send a clear message. With Trump’s imminent return to the White House, Iran’s apprehension provides an opportunity to pressure Tehran further. While I believe that these efforts won’t stop the Houthis outright, they reinforce the costs of Iran’s proxy strategy.

The International Community’s Role

The Bab al-Mandab Strait is not just Israel’s problem; it’s a global one. Yet, the international response has been weak. The Biden administration’s coalition, tasked with securing maritime trade, has fallen short. It is clear that a stronger, more coordinated effort is needed.

The international community must increase naval operations, provide armed escorts for shipping vessels, and enhance logistical support for regional allies. Empowering the Yemeni government to regain control of its coastline is vital for addressing the root of the problem. This isn’t about goodwill; it’s about protecting global economic stability. As I have argued before, local solutions often prove more effective and sustainable than foreign interventions.

 Thinking Beyond the Status Quo

Israel and its allies must abandon outdated strategies that merely address the symptoms of the Houthi problem. By equipping Yemeni forces, utilizing tribal dynamics, and ramping up pressure on Iran, we can begin to dismantle the Houthi threat at its core. In the meantime, tactical steps like disrupting supply routes and leadership networks can offer temporary relief. The stakes are too high for half-hearted measures. The Red Sea is a crucial component for global trade, and its security cannot be left to chance. It’s time for Israel and the international community to think creatively and take decisive action. The clock is ticking, and the world can’t afford to delay.