The Price of Naivety: America and the Axis of Terror

America fell right into Iran’s trap, and Israel was the first to pay for it. America has always been the global stabilizing force, but over the last decade and a half, it has lost its path. It has been trying to make deals with enemies in the naïve hope that those who chant for its death and destruction will not actually pursue it. Gone are the days when America would emphatically declare, “We do not negotiate with terrorists.”

The October 7th attack launched by Hamas kicked off the obvious and far-reaching reaction that Iran, Nasrallah, and Sinwar (a.k.a. the Axis of Terror) were looking for. They knew Gaza would be destroyed and the plight of the Palestinian people would be at the forefront of the global stage, tugging at the heartstrings of both the civilized and uncivilized world. They knew that far-right Israeli politicians would make blatantly racist statements, dragging Israel to the International Criminal Court.

The Axis of Terror anticipated that the international conversation would turn to Palestinian statehood and that some countries would begin to recognize Palestine as a state in defiance of Western wishes.

They knew Israel would spend billions of dollars in U.S. aid to shoot down small projectile rockets and drones, bleeding Israel both financially and emotionally before a second, larger war. They intended to increase the pressure in Northern Israel as the war in Gaza wound down.

The Axis understood the divisions in Israel and how to exploit them. They knew if they waited long enough, the unity Israel experienced after October 7 would fracture, and the internal Israeli division would return to that of October 6. They expected anti-government protests to resume, and pressure to get the hostages back would dominate, inflicting irreparable harm on the civilian front and fostering absolute distrust in the government among many Israelis.

They knew that on October 8, with a Biden White House, they would be confronted with “unwavering American support for Israel.” But they also knew that no American military response would be seen on the ground if they exercised restraint and patience. And they knew whatever actions America would take would divide America.

The Axis’s uncertainty was how much the woke generation, social media algorithms, and the 24-hour news cycle would impact U.S.-Israeli relations and, ultimately, global support for Israel. They hoped the U.S. would lose trust in Israel and go to great lengths to restrain it. 

They revelled as America removed Israel’s coveted aura of deterrence, threatening to withhold, and eventually withholding, the very weapons that Israel needs to maintain its deterrence.

The Axis of Terror tested America when they launched the largest drone and ballistic missile attack Israel had ever faced—and gleefully watched as America pleaded with Israel to exercise restraint in its response.

They forced America to double down on its appeasement policy with Iran rather than allow Israel to have an armed confrontation. They knew that an armed confrontation would mean America accepting over a decade of failed Democratic posturing and policies—which the current American administration would never admit to. With an election a mere seven months away, going against diplomacy would have been political suicide for Democrats.

Obama and Biden gave Iran the keys to a nuclear arsenal on layaway. While Iran took its time fiddling with the naïve hopes of the Democratic administrations, they armed their proxies to the teeth and continued their nuclear ambitions, toeing the line of what is acceptable to most of the world.

Over the years and under the noses of their Western negotiating opponents, Iran successfully developed militias ruling physical territory from Iran to the borders of Israel, covering Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon—not to mention Yemen. They have been ferrying money, power, and weapons with near freedom of movement to the tunnel shafts around Israel (and the Bab Al Mandab Strait). Hamas and Hezbollah did not obtain their massive arsenals and logistical networks overnight. These were developed over the years while American diplomacy was being enacted.

Obama and Biden did not take Iran seriously. They said they did, but they were either naïve optimists without a challenge network or did not believe their policies would haunt them in their lifetimes, let alone their presidential terms. Iran patiently waited out their terms, smiled, held out their hands, and received cash for building, but not arming, a nuclear weapon. The reality is that Iran will obtain nuclear weapons soon. They have what the rest of the world does not: patience.

Based on recent history and its current trajectory, a Democratic White House will only continue pandering to Iran, allowing them to maintain the upper hand in regional deterrence. They will draw red lines and let them be crossed out of fear of escalation. Iran will continue to manipulate them, as they have been doing.

To counter this, America must deviate from this path. A Trump White House would introduce an element of uncertainty and firmness that Iran has not had to contend with under Democratic leadership. A shift from the norm is the only hope of reinstating regional and Israeli deterrence and curbing Iranian military capabilities and regional overreach.

Obama, Biden, and the Democratic Party followed a predictable and short-term playbook. America needs to adopt a long-term strategy and exhibit a firmness that goes beyond words to prevent the region and the world from descending into the path Iran has meticulously charted.

The Chinese military strategist and philosopher Sun Tzu said it well: “If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles.” My gut-wrenching fear is that if nothing changes, Sun Tzu’s statement will ring more true for Iran than for America and the rest of the free world.