The Sultan of Oman’s visit to Moscow could be the key for peace

Sultan of Oman Haitham bin Tariq Al Said became the first head of state of Oman to visit Russia, a significant diplomatic engagement given Oman’s important role as a mediator in the US-Iran dialogue. The visit comes as the countries celebrate the 40th anniversary of diplomatic relations this year.

President of Russia Vladimir Putin hosted Sultan Al Said for a state visit that underscored the strengthening of ties between the two nations. 

The discussions culminated in a joint statement and the signing of a comprehensive package of agreements. The visit marks a notable step in Russia-Oman relations, laying a robust legal and institutional foundation for enhanced cooperation in both bilateral and multilateral settings.

It is also very significant given the various discussions in which Oman and Saudi Arabia are engaged in as mediators. Oman has been hosting the US-Iran talks, which are key for the security of the Middle East and especially Israel.

The first round was hosted in Oman’s capital Muscat and the second round in Rome, at the Omani Ambassador’s residence. Both the US and Iran have been cautiously optimistic and the balance of the security of Israel and the Middle East hedge on these talks, given Iran’s broad based support to extremist Islamic non state actors such as Hamas, Hezbollah and the Yemeni Houthi who have the destruction of Israel as a primary goal.

The Sultan’s visit is also significant as Russia exerts significant influence on the Islamic Republic and its leaders and despite the bilateral nature of the visit, it is expected and assumed that Oman will engage Russia in some degree for its influence on Iran. Russia also exerts strong influence on Hamas and other Palestinian groups and any lasting sustainable solution between Israel and the PLO will realistically require Russia’s participation and blessing. 

Meanwhile Saudi Arabia has also been engaged at providing a platform for US-Russia talks which may also lead to a breakthrough for eventual peace between Russia and Ukraine. Prior to the second round of US-Iran negotiations, the Saudi Minister of Defense Prince Khalid bin Salman, brother of the Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman, visited Tehran and met with senior leadership including the Grand Ayatollah. This unprecedented visit of a senior Saudi Royal to Iran creates the basis of the engagement of multiple allies in a comprehensive peace. It also quietly excludes any diplomatic pressure that China may exert in the region.

No sustainable peace is expected in the Middle East without Russian support, given Russian influence in the region. In engaging multiple allies, the Trump administration is building sustainability and trust in the talks and isolating China, the only actor who has much to lose in the case of a breakthrough between the US-Russia and Iran. 

China has, over the past years, built a Sino-sphere with Russia, Iran, North Korea, Syria and Pakistan which it sees disintegrating in case the Trump administration is able to conclude a successful peace deal with Iran and Russia. Diplomatically this would leave China isolated with Pakistan and North Korea with North Korea recently also leaning towards Russian influence. 

The Gulf states are playing an important role in the recent geopolitical volatility which is also seen with the visit of Indian Prime Minister Modi to Jeddah to chair the second India-Saudi Arabia strategic partnership council and conclude various agreements with the Kingdom and give a push to the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC). The Saudi arm of IMEC is the longest rail link of the project. Saudi Arabia had committed an initial investment of $20 billion at the signature of the MoU in 2023 at the G20 in New Delhi. IMEC is also politically very important to Saudi Arabia, as any final progress in the project is only possible if there is some kind of understanding and recognition between Saudi Arabia and Israel, enlarging the Abraham accords to include Saudi and other GCC states. This makes the signatory states of IMEC (India, UAE, US, Italy, Germany, France and EU) direct stakeholders in the Israel-Saudi Arabia rapprochement finally creating an Indo-Mediterranean alliance.

While Oman has historically had a tolerant relationship with Israel, despite not formally having recognized it, Saudi Arabia has kept Israel at an arms length. India and Israel are strong allies and India also maintains a strong relationship with Iran. Peace in the middle east between Saudi Arabia, Israel and Iran would strengthen India tremendously as well as provide strong impetus to IMEC which is seen as a US led replacement for the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Sultan Haitham’s visit to Russia may trigger a domino for inclusive peace in the Middle East.