The think-tank trap

With wars and other pleasantries going on across the world, same old, there’s no shortage of self-proclaimed experts on geopolitics. From psychiatrists to psychics and armchair generals in their dark rooms, stating their grand plans happening only in their minds, we have a mosaic of so-called experts telling us what’s going on and what’s going to happen and demanding we believe them. Many work for think-tanks as experts. That’s the think-tank trap. We listen to one think-tank, then to another, then another, and our perceptual horizon gets limited by their sense of what’s possible. We forget there’s endless possibility beyond what we’ve heard. Think-tanks give us ideas and analyses, not ex-cathedra pronouncements.

Anyone can be an expert these days. You just need to be a smooth talker and look the part. Sometimes, not even that. It’s tragicomical. It’s great that people can express their opinions on any topic, but let’s not confuse expressing opinions with access to arcane knowledge and secret sources.

That’s why I rarely listen to thank-tanks. I don’t really have authority figures, for that matter, because I’m not easily impressed with people’s so-called intellectual prowess. I don’t show it, of course, but that’s just how it is. I don’t need to listen to think-tanks most of the time because I can come up with a much better analysis on my own. With exceptions, of course, there are great analysts who aren’t just talking heads pretending to have some profound insights. Great intellects who are worth listening to. But they are rare. Really rare.

These think-tanks are often like clubs. When an outsider dares to form an opinion, think-tank gurus get upset because they are the only ones who can opine on geopolitics. I mean, the only ones in their deluded minds, of course. There’s not much original thought going on there, because these analysts don’t want to lose their jobs by writing or saying something daring, unorthodox, and, as it’s going to turn out, accurate. Confidence is a good thing, but the think-tank-trap can give you hopeless hutzpah. I was asked by a journalist how to improve Polish secret services. I’m not going to opine on such matters, as I don’t know these structures. Now, many of these think-tankers, and others, jump at the opportunity to opine on matters they know little to nothing about. How foolish, but we’re in an era of fools, so why am I surprised?

I’m sure many analysts in Poland are, God have mercy, shocked that Vladimir Putin (some hopelessly brainwashed people are saying it’s Ukraine dragging us into the war) resorted to such a ”shocking escalation.” Shocking? In his article published in July 2021, Putin denies Ukraine’s right to exist. He mentions Poland 29 times. You don’t mention something 29 times just for the heck of it. He is obsessed with Poland for all sorts of reasons and wants us gone. Kids – abducted and russified. The rest – in mass graves. It really is that simple. If NATO doesn’t show strength, Russia won’t think twice about swarming Europe with drones. What’s there to understand? That’s the problem with these so-called experts, analysts, think-tankers, whatever. They are mostly linear thinkers who don’t connect the dots because these dots represent different categories. You don’t mention Poland 29 times in one of the most important articles of your presidency just for the heck of it. Basic logic. If the Iranian leader wrote an article where he mentioned the ”Zionist Entity” 30 times, yeah, you get the point. This isn’t rocket science, you don’t need to be a genius, you just need to see the pattern.

We’re in extremely dangerous times and we need people who think in all directions, particularly in policymaking institutions and national security institutions. There’s no place for linear thinking there. Too much is at stake. I know you understand it in Israel. Bravo.

I make seemingly obvious points in my April article for the Kyiv Post. Seemingly, because I’m not sure these points are obvious to the Polish military. Especially given what’s going on in Ukraine and Israel. Ukraine shoots down hundreds of drones daily. Poland celebrates when several drones get shot down. Not sure if that’s a good look. Well, there’s a military response to Russian incursions, so that’s good. Finally. Sławomir Mentzen, a right-wing Polish politician who I definitely don’t admire, asked: ”What if Poland is attacked by a barrage of two thousand drones? It’s time to wake up!” He was attacked and called a Russian asset. But he’s right. I don’t get why all the hate when he makes a good point, his political leanings notwithstanding.

Others point to the fact that modern warfare isn’t about tanks anymore and Poland shouldn’t be investing in tanks, that the war in Ukraine has shown it’s about missile barrages, cyberattacks, the “little green men” wearing unmarked uniforms, and, perhaps most importantly – drone swarms controlled from far behind the frontlines. Polish military experts point to the fact that Polish military thinking must adjust to new realities of war as seen in Ukraine – and fast. Ukrainians, being world experts on drones, are likely already helping Poles master the art of drone warfare.

Sometimes, you need to point out the obvious to get through to people. For example, don’t abandon people wth abandonment issues. Be there for them – within reason, of course.

Ultimately, history mostly remembers geniuses and sometimes those around them. That’s it. To quote one movie, ”Do you know the name of the propaganda minister of England or Stalin’s? But Joseph Goebbels – everyone knows him.” That’s the brutal truth. History doesn’t remember nice, goody-two-shoes, players and all-knowing think-tank ”experts.”