The Trump’s Gambit on Chabahar: A Gamble for India

In a move that underscores its unwavering commitment to the “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran, the Trump administration has decided to revoke the sanctions waiver previously granted to India for its development of Iran’s Chabahar Port. This decision, cloaked in the rhetoric of curbing Tehran’s regional influence and nuclear ambitions, reverberates far beyond US-Iran relations. For India, this is more than a policy adjustment—it’s a geopolitical earthquake.

Chabahar, located in southeastern Iran, has long been at the heart of India’s strategic vision for regional connectivity. For New Delhi, the port was not merely a commercial venture but a linchpin of its efforts to bypass Pakistan and access Afghanistan and Central Asia. The port was also key to India’s ambition of fostering regional stability, offering landlocked Afghanistan a vital alternative trade route. It was precisely this role—promoting economic development and diminishing reliance on Pakistan—that led Washington to grant a sanctions waiver for Chabahar back in 2018.

By rescinding that waiver, the Trump administration has effectively put India in a bind. For years, India has poured resources into Chabahar, seeing it as a counterweight to China’s influence in the region, particularly in neighboring Pakistan. Gwadar Port, a cornerstone of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, lies just 72 kilometers away from Chabahar. India’s foothold in Iran was meant to provide a much-needed counterbalance. But Washington’s new hardline stance now threatens to upend these carefully laid plans, leaving India scrambling for alternatives.

This decision also risks derailing one of the region’s most ambitious connectivity projects: the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC). Designed to link India with Europe through Iran and Russia, the INSTC has been a critical element of India’s trade strategy. Chabahar was the gateway to this corridor. Without it, the grand vision of streamlined connectivity with Central Asia and beyond may falter, leaving India to reconsider its role in the project and its broader ambitions in the region.

But beyond the tangible economic setbacks lies a more profound diplomatic challenge. For India, the Chabahar project has always been a testament to its ability to navigate a complex web of alliances and rivalries. By cooperating with Iran on this initiative, India had managed to balance its growing closeness with the United States without alienating Tehran. Now, that delicate balancing act is in jeopardy. The Trump administration’s decision forces India into an uncomfortable corner, compelled to choose between its strategic autonomy and its deepening ties with Washington.

This decision may also have unintended consequences for the broader region. Afghanistan, already grappling with instability, could see its fragile economic lifelines further eroded. Chabahar has been instrumental in facilitating trade between India and Afghanistan, and any disruption to its operations will be felt in Kabul. Meanwhile, the vacuum left by India in Chabahar could pave the way for greater Chinese involvement, a development that would run counter to Washington’s own strategic objectives.

The Trump administration’s move reflects a broader pattern of foreign policy decisions that prioritize immediate pressure tactics over long-term strategic considerations. While it may achieve short-term gains in isolating Iran, it risks alienating key partners like India and undermining regional stability. For India, the path forward will require diplomatic agility and strategic foresight. New Delhi must recalibrate its approach, balancing its relationships with Washington and Tehran while safeguarding its regional interests.

In the end, Chabahar is more than a port. It is a symbol of India’s aspirations for connectivity and influence in a region fraught with challenges. The Trump administration’s gambit threatens to turn that symbol into yet another casualty of geopolitical maneuvering, leaving India to navigate the wreckage on the eve of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the White House.