The view from under the Bus
The participants have not made details of the Memorandum of Understanding public. Descriptions of parts of the memorandum appear as easily accessible items of news or opinion, items with varying, but minimal, degrees of reliability. Without confidence in any one of these items, we outsiders have begun to see a rough outline of the agreement.
The rulers of Iran have, as far as we can see, entered months of negotiation with a consistent narrative: Give us everything we want. The other negotiating party, the government of the United States, has provided two contrasting narratives. On the one hand, the United States threatens that it can destroy Iran if it does not accede to our demands. On the other, the United States reveals that it has no real demands, and so can give Iran more or less what it has wanted all along.
The Iranian demands: Minimal interference with Iran’s nuclear development, minimal interference with Iran’s proxies, minimal interference with suppression of human rights or internal dissent in Iran, restored access to frozen Iranian assets, and recognition of Iranian taxation of international shipping. Iran will, of course, continue to chant, “Death to America, death to Israel.”
At this point, it seems accurate to summarize presentations about the Memorandum of Understanding as generally matching the Iranian government’s demands. Anyone who wanted the United States to press the Iranian government now watches from under the bus.
Israel did not even get invited to the negotiations that led to this Memorandum of Understanding. Israelis who hoped that this war might result in regime change in Iran, or at least, in restraints on Iranian adventurism, can feel abandoned. Reportedly, both Iran and the United States agree that the Memorandum should limit what Israel can do in Lebanon. It seems unlikely that the Memorandum anticipates any restraint on the part of Hezbollah, which has been firing explosives at civilian targets in Northern Israel on a regular basis.
You might expect occupants of the space under the bus to feel rather lonely, the way discarded people generally do. Actually, we have plenty of company here.
Ethnic and religious minorities had hopes for change in the regime in Iran. The President of the United States even said, at one point, “Help is on the way.” Here under the bus you can find Iranian Bahais, Christians, and other religious minorities, Kurds, Baluchis, and other ethnic minorities, abandoned.
Champions of human rights, some of them, had hoped to see political dissent permitted once again in Iran. They had hoped to see an end to mass incarceration, public executions, and violent suppression of peaceful demonstrations. Some champions of human rights wanted to see progress in women’s rights and religious freedom. No one now expects the Memorandum of Understanding to make progress on these issues. Some champions of human rights huddle here with me, under the bus.
Other champions of human rights have become oddly enchanted with Islamist leaders. They are cheering the prospects of peace with the victorious leaders of the Iranian government. They do not belong under the bus.
Supporters of Sunni states adjoining Iran, and of others not so near, perhaps have a place under the bus. Iran has launched weapons against civilian targets in all these states, and not paid a price for its acts of aggression. I have heard no rumors that the Memorandum of Understanding will protect civilians in these states.
Some Lebanese support Hezbollah. Hezbollah has built complex infrastructure for its ongoing war with Israel, and continues to launch missiles against Israel. Hezbollah envisions a bloody fight to the finish against Israel, perhaps over the course of many years. Many Sunni Muslims, Christians, Druze, and other communities in Lebanon would prefer to avoid the next round of fighting, would rather live in peace with each other, maybe even in peace with Israel. Perhaps even some Shiites in Lebanon would prefer living in a peaceful country. Those Lebanese who oppose forever war watch from here under the bus.
