The War Elite

Following Israel’s strikes on Iran and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s call to put an end to the theocratic regime, the possibility of the Islamic Republic’s collapse is once again gaining prominence in the global media.

We often speak of the current Iranian leadership as a direct continuation of the 1979 Islamic Revolution. But in reality, we are likely witnessing the third ruling elite since that upheaval.

The first elite consisted of those who actually carried out the revolution — a broad political coalition united against the regime of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. This was truly a wide front: from religious authorities to the pro-Soviet communist Tudeh Party. The first post-revolutionary governments were filled with representatives of this diverse alliance — until Ayatollah Khomeini decisively seized full control of the state and allowed a new elite to rise: the clerics and their loyal followers.

But it would be a mistake to believe that this same elite continues to rule Iran today. A real shift in power took place during the long and bloody Iran–Iraq War, when the repressive apparatus was restructured, and the clerical establishment effectively began to share power with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

This power structure increasingly came to resemble 20th-century authoritarian regimes — the Soviet Union with its dual system of the party and security services, or Nazi Germany with the party and the SS. As in both those cases, the authority of the clerics and the IRGC in Iran came to surpass that of the regular army.

Today, it is precisely members of this elite who are dying under Israeli strikes. If the regime survives, we may soon witness the rise of a fourth elite — one forged not in revolution or war with Iraq, but in the confrontation with Israel. And this new elite will not be made up of idealists or fanatics, but of functionaries raised in cynicism, opportunism, and unwavering loyalty to the regime alone.

It is possible that this future Iran will be more cautious than the current one — but without doubt, it will also be far more insidious.

The evolution of Iran’s ruling class offers a lens through which we can better understand what to expect from Russia’s political elite in the near future. Because Russia, too, is now ruled by its second post-Soviet elite — and the third is already on the horizon.

The first was the “broad front” that came together to dismantle the communist dictatorship and build a new state. It brought together former Soviet officials and KGB agents alongside democrats, liberals, and nationalists — not only ethnic Russians but also representatives of other nations within the empire.

But that elite of the 1990s quickly gave way to a new one — hardened by the Chechen wars, consolidated around the cult of Putin, and defined by the dominance of the security services. This is the elite that currently upholds the Kremlin’s vertical power structure.

Yet even this elite may soon be displaced by a new generation: those who profit and build their careers through Russia’s war against Ukraine. Should the Putin regime endure, it will be this emerging group — more radical, more ruthless — that takes the reins. Young people shaped by propaganda, raised in hatred of the West and belief in war as the ultimate problem-solving tool, increasingly resemble their Iranian counterparts — similarly fanatical products of an authoritarian system.

This is the true war elite.