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Ian Joseph

The Winds of Change

“Netanyahu’s policies have not and will not produce a sustainable victory in Gaza, cannot secure Israel against its greatest existential threat — Iran — and are endangering world Jewry and undermining America’s broader Middle East strategic needs and goals.” – Thomas Friedman (New York Times 10 May 2024)

“Intelligence is the ability to change” – Origin unknown

“When the winds of change blow, some people build walls and others build windmills.” – Chinese proverb

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The winds of change are blowing through Israel. As a fellow Israeli and Jew, my support and heart are with Israel. As a fellow human being, with liberal and progressive views, my support and heart are with the Palestinians who desire independence, a land of their own, escape from the oppression of the occupation, and a peaceful life.

Radical change often comes out of tragedy and trauma. I do not doubt that the current wars Israel is fighting on seven fronts; Iran, Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the West Bank resistance, Houthis in Yemen, Shiite militias in Iraq and Syria, and international opinion will force a radical internal reexamination of past Israeli policies concerning the Palestinians.

For 57 years, since June 1967, Israel has pursued an explicit and implicit policy of settlement in East Jerusalem and the West Bank. Israel has utilized every tactic and strategy that the settlement enterprise could devise to create “facts on the ground”, ranging from explicit massive settlement to the creation of illegal, clandestine farms throughout the West Bank, all in an attempt to prevent the creation of a second state, Palestine.

And… it would appear they have succeeded with more than 240,000 Israeli Jews living in East Jerusalem and a further 500,000 living in the West Bank. These numbers continue to grow daily as the building of new suburbs and expansion into existing settlements continues unabated.

For more than 75 years Israel has attempted to control the situation; targeted operations and strikes; assassinations from the air, land, and sea; worldwide targeted killings; mass killing; mass arrests; detention without trial; “legal” and illegal land expropriation; ongoing settlement construction; building walls and fences; multiple legal stratagems; and various personal and financial forms of relief. Israel has succeeded in prolonging the occupation and “managing the conflict,” but it did not and could not truly erase the Palestinian issue, did not succeed in ending the hundred-year Israel-Palestine war, did not succeed in imposing an Israeli solution on the Palestinians, and did not eliminate the Palestinian concept and dreams of self-determination.

Today, more than one-year post-October 7, Israel is in an unprecedented, prolonged state of war, with more than 120,000 internal evacuees, and fighting on seven fronts. Every one of these is, to a greater or lesser extent, an existential battle whose outcome will determine Israel’s future.

Over the last year, Israel has paid for its survival with the loss of more than 1,680 Israelis with more than 350 soldiers killed in ground operations in Gaza, more than 750 soldiers killed in total, and a death rate in Lebanon which is just starting to climb. A staggering number which is the highest rate of soldier deaths in any one year since the Yom Kippur War in 1973.

This is the ongoing cost of maintaining the Jewish state by force of arms in the absence of a political settlement for the Hundred-Years Israel-Palestine War. It is the ongoing cost of the occupation of the West Bank in the face of resistance from millions of Palestinians. It is the ongoing cost of policies that maintain that the Palestinian armed resistance can be managed. It is the ongoing cost of messianic redemption of the land of Israel that maintains that land is more important than peace. It is the ongoing cost of denying millions of Palestinians equal rights and citizenship through an apartheid-like system. It is the ongoing cost of hubris and arrogance that maintains a policy that force of arms can control the situation indefinitely.

The winds of change are blowing, the only question is what Israeli leadership will do in reaction. The choices facing Israel are quite stark: either continue with the same policies and approaches of maintaining a forever war with the Palestinians and bear the resulting costs in lives, money, and international opprobrium, or work with the Americans, Saudis, Jordanians, Egyptians, Palestinians, and others to forge a final settlement resulting in two states for two peoples – Israel and Palestine in the territory between the Jordan and the Mediterranean. The only alternative to the two state solution is continuing the current policy of a single state for two people with the accompanying ongoing bloodshed.

Israel’s fundamental war, and the associated problem, are not with Hamas, it is with the Palestinian people as a whole, as it has been for the last 100 years. Even eliminating Hamas and Hezbollah, which will not happen, will not solve the fundamental problem of the Palestinian people wanting freedom and a country of their own. Even if Hamas is eliminated, which it will not be, a violent organization to replace Hamas will spring up in the aftermath as the fundamental problem will still be there.

The winds of change are being driven by a shift in public perception, in the West and mainly in young people as to the validity of the Zionist narrative. Part of the change in young American Jews is that many no longer accept or believe the traditional Jewish narrative of an unblemished moral vision for the state of Israel whereby slogans such as “The most moral army in the world” are no longer taken at face value. On the other hand, there are still many groups that staunchly support Israel, but the inter-generational divide within the Jewish community concerning the question of Israel-Palestine and support for Israel as it continues to fight the hundred-year war with the Palestinians continues to widen.

This shift in public opinion, and resulting declining support for Israel, can also be seen in government actions, whereby countries have decided to halt trade with Israel, have decided to recognize the Palestinian state, cease selling arms to Israel, and even present a case for genocide by Israel at the ICJ in the Hague.

Within the United States, unquestionably Israel’s strongest ally, supporter, and supplier of military material, we are seeing what will be the end of unquestioned bi-partisan, American support for Israel. It may not happen within the next 5-10 years but the medium-term direction is clear. Such changes appear to take a long time, but when they happen, they happen very quickly. This will lead to the Zionist narrative being challenged, and in part replaced, with the Palestinian narrative of an oppressed people, suffering for decades at the expense of the Zionist implementation of a Jewish state.

The winds of change are blowing worldwide, calling for recognition of the Palestinian plight and their right to a land of their own. While there is no doubt that the Jewish desire for a state of their own is a legitimate cause, one must recognize that it has come at the cost of displacing other people and denying them their righteous claim for a state of their own. This needs to be recognized and addressed for any semblance or chance of peace in the region. 

The winds of change are blowing through Israel internally as well. For the last two years. , especially after October 7, public sentiment has shifted against Netanyahu’s far-right government. If elections were held today, polls show that a centrist, right-of-center coalition would win the elections. However, their policies vis a vis the Palestinians would remain essentially unchanged, with little, if any, support for a second state. 

Israel is in an exceedingly difficult position today. On the one hand, there is ever-increasing direct kinetic pressure on Israel from Hamas and Hezbollah on Israel’s borders, pressure from armed Palestinians in the West Bank, pressure from Iranian armed and supported militias in Iraq, Syria and Yemen, as well as the immediate threat of a nuclear Iran. Nonetheless, the winds of change will continue to blow and forge change in the Middle East. In the absence of a political and diplomatic solution, Israel will be engaged in sporadic wars, preemptive raids and border skirmishes for the foreseeable future – a state of fortress Israel engaged in forever wars.

The wind of change is blowing through the Middle East. Only by recognizing that the winds of change are upon us and that Israel can either attempt to resist the coming changes, or work to best utilize them, can we ensure an Israel that is best positioned to take advantage of the building pressures and impending changes to thrive and prosper.

About the Author
Born and educated in South Africa, a graduate of Jewish day school and Habonm Dror, Ian Joseph served in the IDF as an officer in combat units, and currently resides in North Carolina and Cyprus. Ian holds an MBA from Shulich School of Business in Toronto, is certified as a Master Instructor by the American Sailing Association and is currently retired from IBM. Among other pursuits Ian edits a weekly newsletter of Israeli news items, teaches sailing around the world and certifies sailing instructors.
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