The world needs another ‘Don’t’ from Biden

On October 10, 2023, US President Joe Biden delivered a speech that had the potential to define his presidency, at least in the foreign policy realm. Three days after the October 7th massacre, after already sending two carrier groups to the region, the president sent a clear, aggressive and blunt warning to Iran and Hezbollah: “To any country, to any organization, anyone thinking of taking advantage of this situation, I have one word: Don’t. Don’t.”

The “Don’t” speech most likely changed the course of the war, and potentially the region. It likely prevented a full-blown war in Lebanon — and possibly beyond — in late 2023, and allowed Israel to focus on the tough challenge of defeating Hamas in the Gaza Strip. It also went a long way in bringing the moderate Arab regimes back into alignment with Washington after years of declining American strategic reliability in the region.

The US-led coalition operation on April 14th to prevent and intercept the Iranian drone and missile attack on Israel was another impressive show of force and leadership by America. It made clear to all the pro-Western leaders in the Middle East that there are things that the US can offer that just cannot be bought from China. The war Hamas forced on Israel gave the US an opportunity — the chance to shore up its position in this vital region.

As important as these actions were, they have not brought about an end to fighting or for the potential for escalation. Over the past 10 months, the lion’s share of attention has understandably been on the ongoing war in Gaza: US military aid to Israel, the humanitarian challenge, civilian suffering, and the efforts to advance a hostage deal.

As pressing and challenging as these concerns are, especially efforts to free hostages, it is time also to refocus on the big picture.

Iran has gone a long way in developing a strategy that allows it to wage regional war while remaining  free from the consequences. By now it is clear that the US led anti-Houthi coalition is a failure. Houthi-held Yemen remains an active threat to global trade and navigation. The Houthis must have also made an impression on Russia’s Vladimir Putin and China’s Xi Jinping as a tool for long-lasting harassment of the West.

Hamas, Hezbollah, and Shi’ite militias in Iraq and Syria are all firing on Israel, while Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei and his Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps know that they are immune to any response as long as they are in Iran.

All the while, Iran’s nuclear project is already beyond any real foreign inspection and at a stage in which it is now only for the Iranians to decide whether or not to build  a bomb. Iran has also shown it is ready to push terror attacks against American targets, including the 2021 attempt on former national security adviser John Bolton and former secretary of state Mike Pompeo’s life in Washington DC.

Hezbollah strike on the Druze village of Majdal Shams on the Israeli Golan-Heights, using an Iranian-made Fajar rocket, is a profound tragedy. Twelve children were killed and dozens more injured while playing soccer.

Meanwhile, Iran — almost untouched by the war — is now openly threatening Israel with a full-scale regional war if it retaliates harshly in Lebanon for the crime committed by its proxy Hezbollah.

This reality presents real dangers. At the same time, it presents a strategic opportunity for the Biden administration.

As successful as the “Don’t” policy and the April 14th regional air-defense operation against Iran were, the US might lose what it has gained if a third all-out Israel-Lebanon war starts in the coming days. It will also lose face among Arab partners if it is seen trying to hold Israel back from a justified retaliation in Lebanon after the Majdal Shams tragedy that followed 10 months of Hezbollah’s unprovoked war of attrition. Just hours after the tragedy in the Golan, a US base in Syria was attacked, a familiar signature of Iran-backed militias in the aria.

At this point, allowing Iran to openly keep using its proxy assets without being touched by the war will make a devastating point for all to see. Namely, the US is unwilling to stand up and stop a medium-size regional power from collapsing what is left of the regional order.

But a different course of action is available for the Biden-Harris administration. It can send the US Fifth Fleet to the Persian Gulf and firmly warn Iran of the military consequences of any further attacks from any of its proxies, including Lebanese Hezbollah and the Houthis. That message, if backed by the will to execute, will echo not only among US partners in the region, but also in Moscow and in Beijing.

While Iran is entirely capable of out-competing Israel in a potential fight that sees both sides trying to show they can damage the other more, Tehran holds an empty gun against the US. Its military capabilities are still at a stage where they cannot pose a major conventional threat to Europe and continental US.

Faced with a credible American military threat, the Iranian regime will most likely lose its appetite for the heretofore comfortable war that it has been waging. In the worst-case scenario, American airpower will be forced to execute the threat, hitting some coastal Iranian infrastructure, forcing Iran to show its empty hand.

True, casualties and future retaliations are real possibilities. Containing or rolling back hostile actors is not free from risks.

Nevertheless, the gain would be greater, and deterring Iran from moving toward a regional war is a possibility open only to the US. Israel is currently leading the fight against Iran’s proxies virtually on its own, and would go it alone against Iran if necessary. But it is preferable for the US and its allies that the broader war not erupt at all, as it would be costly for the pro-Western Arab states, for Israel, and for the US.

Standing up to the Iranian axis can also be a powerful signal that undermines Russian-Chinese attempts to reduce US influence in the region. It is also the only real option of regaining control over the crucial waterways in the Persian Gulf and in the Red Sea. It is an opportunity to end the escalation in Lebanon and further pressure Hamas to free hostages, while forcing Benjamin Netanyahu into a position of gratitude.

There is of course an election season in the US. Military commitments in the Middle East have been wildly unpopular for years. But with Biden out of the race, he is in a position to shape his legacy as president, while allowing Vice President Harris to maintain some distance and in the same time show firm leadership.

America has been in a second cold war for some time now, but has yet to show a willingness to stand up to its dangerous adversaries on the other side. Iran, now openly leading a regional war and threatening to escalate further, is giving Biden the opportunity to consolidate the regional and pro-Western global alliance.

It is time for Biden’s second “Don’t” moment.