This Is the Opposition’s Last Chance, but Netanyahu Still Holds All the Cards

1. This is the center-left’s most important election. It may also be the last one it can win. Every additional election cycle lowers its chances, drains initial excitement and motivation, and keeps people at home or abroad.
2. The opposition parties’ campaigns have been poor so far, with the exceptions of Avigdor Liberman’s and, in the past two weeks, Bennett’s. Most campaigns focused on security and the ongoing war, where the center-left has an inherent disadvantage (read Kahneman), and spent their time reacting to videos from Netanyahu and Ben Gvir. 
3. By ignoring the cost of living, the soft underbelly of the right and of Likud and Shas in particular, the opposition left at least 6 seats on the table it could of taken from the right.
   Even so, the opposition still has its best chance. But the facts on the ground are very difficult to overcome.
   
4. Jewish demography obviously favors the right. Just a small anecdote: a couple of months ago, Avi Maoz was asked how many grandchildren he has, and he said he could field at least ten basketball teams. That’s not an advantage, it’s a knockout.
5. If the center-left had a Jewish leader with a spine, they would work with the Arab public (22% of the population) and would on a regular basis have a majority.
   But Netanyahu and his partners are very successful at preventing this, and no one will say it out loud because everyone is afraid of being labeled a leftist.
6. Israeli youth have gone through an unprecedented process of brainwashing over the past 16 years (where Naftali Bennett is responsible, as former Education Minister who promoted that), through the school curriculum and social media. It shows in many ways, just one example are kids from secular homes and cities can be spotted regularly walking around in kippot and tzitzit. These are the voters for Ben-Gvir and the right for years to come.
7. Even if Netanyahu is not the largest party (which, unfortunately, I think he will be, or a close second), he has many other cards up his sleeve.
8. The first is that Yashar, Eisenkot’s party, added people who were not properly vetted. You can be sure Netanyahu and company have checked every person on the list, and may even have pushed some Trojan horses onto it. Those candidates will be the first targets if Eisenkot ends up the largest party (which I don’t believe he will).
9. Another option for Netanyahu is to offer a post-election rotation as prime minister to either Liberman or Bennett (excluding Lapid). He can work on both and get them to bid against each other for the deal, in which Netanyahu serves first and then retires or is elected President.
10. Netanyahu knows this is the most dangerous election for him. If he isn’t the largest party, many of his supporters are zealots who could be pushed toward an Israeli “January 6” scenario. He will not give up power quickly. Many Israelis have lost their filters, 400,000 guns are circulating in civilian hands, and soldiers who have been brainwashed for years as the majority of youth, are a large group of Ben Gvir’s supporters. Add the fact that Ben Gvir controls the police – political violence is just a matter of time.
11. On top of that, Netanyahu has placed loyalists at the top of the Shin Bet and the Mossad, who serve him rather than the state.
    
    I fear the day after. If Netanyahu loses – I predict violence. If Netanyahu keeps his PM chair, even for another election cycle –  we will see a bigger exodus out of Israel.I really hope I’m wrong about my predictions, but here they are:

Current coalition: potentially 55-57

Likkud – 22,
Otzma Yehudit (Ben Gvir) – 11,
Shas – 9,
Yahadut Hatora – 8,
Habait Hayeudi (Smotrich) – 5,
Offer Vinter – 0.

Current Opposition: potentially 53-55

Yashar (Eisenkot) – 17,
Beyachad (Bennet) – 16,
Israel Beytenu (Liberman) – 9,
Democrats (Yair Golan) – 6,
Raam (Mansur Abbas) – 5,
Hendel+Zalicha – 0 

Unaffiliated:
Hameshutefet – 9.