A narrow window for peace in Gaza

On Monday of next week, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to meet President Donald Trump at the White House. Based on Trump’s social media post, he is likely to tell Netanyahu that the war in Gaza must end and that all of the hostages must be brought home.

From what we know – confirmed by first-hand sources – Hamas has four main demands:

1. A permanent ceasefire (i.e., an end to the war);
2. Withdrawal of all Israeli troops from Gaza;
3. Release of Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli jails, including those convicted of killing Israelis;
4. A significant increase in humanitarian aid to Gaza.

In exchange, Hamas is reportedly prepared to release all of the hostages (50 in total, including the living and the bodies of the deceased) and to transfer governance of Gaza to a Palestinian civilian technocratic government.

Hamas has not, however, agreed to disarm, to hand over its weapons to the new Palestinian government, or to have its armed personnel leave Gaza with their families. Still, this is the deal that could be secured next week – first, if Trump compels Netanyahu to accept it, and second, if officials like Witkoff, along with Qatar and Egypt, press Hamas to accept and begin implementation. The war in Gaza could, theoretically, be over within one to two weeks.

After withdrawal: What Hamas might do

My assessment is that once Israeli soldiers are no longer in Gaza, Hamas’s armed personnel will have no immediate targets. Hamas lacks both the capacity and the motivation to continue launching rockets and mortars into Israel once the war is over.

Their priority will likely be protecting themselves from angry Gazans. For that reason, Hamas may hold onto their weapons until they feel secure or are prepared to leave. Disarming Hamas will take more time and must be overseen by a new, temporary Palestinian government in Gaza that is not Hamas.

That government can then invite Arab forces to help establish law, order, and basic governance. These forces – according to public statements – will only enter Gaza in coordination with an Israeli withdrawal.

The urgency of Palestinian leadership

What must happen now is this: PA President Mahmoud Abbas must appoint the head of the temporary Gaza government – or release a list of names for those who will lead it.

Back in March, the Palestinian Authority, with Egypt’s support, published a list of 15 technocratic candidates. Most of these names are reportedly acceptable to the Palestinian public. Different names could also be chosen. What matters is that this move happens immediately. There is no reason for Abbas to delay even a day longer in announcing either a leader or the full “Gaza Support Committee.”

Since Israel blocked a planned meeting of the foreign ministers of the UAE, Egypt, Jordan, Qatar, and Turkey, Abbas should instead convene all foreign diplomats based in the Palestinian Authority and Israel in Ramallah. This meeting would allow them to voice support for the Palestinian plan to take over Gaza once the war ends.

Abbas would likely receive the backing of much of the international community, which is essential to addressing Gaza’s humanitarian crisis and rebuilding effective governance.

A chance to align with the global agenda

Reuniting Palestinian governance is, first and foremost, in the Palestinians’ interest. But it also aligns with wider regional and international priorities. If Palestinian leadership acts now, then forums like the rescheduled Franco-Saudi summit in Paris – or the September UN General Assembly under the Global Alliance for the Implementation of the Two-State Solution (which includes over 90 countries) – would have a more concrete agenda for Gaza reconstruction and progress toward peace.

In his June 10, 2025 letter to President Macron, President Abbas laid out commitments that the international community can build on:

• The disarming of Hamas;
• Deployment of international forces under a UN Security Council mandate to protect Palestinian civilians;
• A full peace agreement with Israel leading to a two-state solution;
• Palestinian elections within one year;
• A pledge to end payments to families of prisoners and martyrs.

A deal within reach

The war must end now. The hostages must return home. Hamas can no longer govern Gaza and, at this point, does not present an active threat to Israel.

Trump can assure Netanyahu that, should Hamas attempt to rebuild its military capabilities, Israel would retain the right to re-enter Gaza – with full US backing. At the same time, Trump can tell Hamas that as long as they refrain from rebuilding their military threat, the United States will help guarantee the ceasefire and the end of the war.

This outcome is within reach. But only if the key players act – immediately.