To win the war, expand the Abraham Accords

After 11 months of war against enemies on multiple fronts, this week we were reminded that Israel is not alone and that its integration in the region is an inevitability. Saudi Arabia’s Ambassador to the US Reema bint Bandar Al Saud’s recent participation, alongside Israeli officials, in the Middle East-America Dialogue (MEAD) Summit in Washington, DC, was a rare public showing of what the future could look like when the Abraham Accords are expanded.

For many Israelis, the ongoing conflict is seen as a direct confrontation between Israel and Iran, bolstered by Tehran’s proxies. Israel feels alone in its existential struggle for survival. While this perspective is understandable, it overlooks a broader reality: Israel has regional partners awaiting the opportunity to deepen ties with the Jewish state. Exactly four years ago, we all witnessed the historic signing of the Abraham Accords. That agreement was always the start of something bigger, not the end of the process. And, despite normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia being placed on the backburner after the horrific massacre of October 7, 2023, Jerusalem and Riyadh still share many interests. This must inform Israel’s strategic priority to isolate and deter Iran by signing a peace treaty with Saudi Arabia.

Since October 7, Israelis have focused solely on countering the threats emanating from Iran’s proxies, Hamas, and Hezbollah. The Israeli cabinet set two primary goals: the safe return of all Israeli hostages and the elimination of Hamas as a military threat. While these are crucial security objectives, they do not fully address Israel’s broader strategic needs. What Israel truly requires is to deepen its regional ties through the emerging security architecture and foster robust economic relationships with Arab and Muslim nations.

In September 2023, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told the United Nations that Israel was “on the cusp” of a “historic peace” with Saudi Arabia. This sentiment was echoed by Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who stated that his country was moving steadily closer to normalizing relations with Israel.

Then Tehran shifted its approach. Two weeks after Netanyahu’s UN address and MBS’s interview, Hamas unleashed a brutal attack to thwart Israel’s normalization with Saudi Arabia. Nearly a year later, Israeli-Saudi normalization seems like a fantasy.

Nevertheless, Jerusalem and Riyadh continue to engage in backchannel discussions. Both states are increasing their security co-dependency and share the aspiration for economic diversification. The growing security interconnectedness among Sunni states and Israel is the essential prerequisite that will lead to their economic growth. Iran fears the prospect of regional normalization.

Iran’s fear reveals that peace is an inevitability. The question is not if, but when will Israel and the Saudi kingdom cross the Rubicon and establish formal ties. This is why Israel’s strategic objective cannot be limited to defeating Iran and its proxies. Israeli leaders must prioritize full-fledged normalization with Saudi Arabia. If Iran’s proxies went to war to prevent this alliance, then it is in Israel’s interest to advance it.

On April 13, 2024, a regional coalition consisting of Israeli, American, French, Jordanian, and British forces intercepted 350 Iranian drones and missiles directed against the regime in Tehran against Israel. The coalition was assisted by the UAE and Saudi Arabia providing critical intelligence before and during the assault. These events underscored a critical truth: when confronting a common enemy like Iran, these nations can work effectively together. This is precisely what Iran fears, and it is why its leaders are desperate to prevent Saudi-Israeli normalization that would leave the regime in Tehran isolated in the region.

Iran is attempting to overcompensate this by encircling Israel in its “ring of fire” strategy building an extensive network of proxies in Jordan, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq, and Gaza. Not only do these proxies threaten Israel, they destabilize their host environments. Iran seeks to turn these states into failed states that ultimately will be client states of Iran enabling the regime to project its power further across the region.

While Iran is strategically playing offense, Israel is tactically playing defense. To play the same game, Israel must adopt a strategic calculus that regionally integrates it in the region. Iran’s attempts to engulf Israel with security threats must be met by Israel isolating Iran.

This isn’t only an Israeli, or a Saudi interest. It is also an American one, which is why the US continues to invest resources to advance such a deal with diplomatic opportunities, such as Ambassador Bandar Al Saud’s recent MEAD address, alongside deepening security collaborations through the platforms offered by CENTCOM.

Building on the Abraham Accords to enhance economic ties and military interconnectedness between signatories can lead to an Abraham Accords 2.0. To win in its war against Iran and its proxies, Israel must look through a wider prism at the conflict. Such a deal is the key to achieving a lasting Israeli victory beyond its current war.