Trump doesn’t want Gaza

Donald Trump does not want to own Gaza any more than he intends to invade Panama or impose punitive tariffs on Mexico or Canada. The US president is deal-making and intends to do so from strong starting positions. In the case of Gaza, the takeover-makeover fantasy he described during Tuesday’s White House press briefing has four audiences.

The first is Hamas and the message is: Return the hostages and leave the Gaza Strip. If you don’t, we will transfer every Palestinian from Gaza until we get to you. (“It will make us somewhat more violent,” if all the hostages are not returned, Trump warned.)

The second is the Arab states that Trump needs to pressure Hamas to exit the scene and provide a plan for Gaza’s security and reconstruction. To the leaders of Egypt, Jordan, Qatar, UAE and Saudi Arabia the message is: Do your part now or the United States will take actions that enrage the Arab public and destabilize the region.

The third is the Israeli far right, including Netanyahu’s coalition partner Betzalel Smotrich. Trump is telling the Israeli right: Good things will come if you support the ceasefire with Hamas through the second stage of hostage negotiations. Gaza will be redeveloped for settlement by “world people” which presumably includes Jews. And not only that. The Trump team is reconsidering the United States’ stance on Israeli annexation of Judea and Samaria, the far right’s ultimate wish. (“People do like the idea,” Trump teased.)

Finally, the fourth audience is the Republican party base. Trump is reminding his voters that the Biden administration delayed weapons shipments and distanced the United States from Israel, thereby emboldening Hamas. As Netanyahu put it, “when the other side sees daylight between us, and occasionally over the last few years to put it mildly they saw daylight, then it’s more difficult.” Trump will allow no daylight between the United States and Israel.

Trump’s endgame is partly about Gaza but not only. He wants to secure both phases of the ceasefire, end the war, and bring the hostages home. He also intends to bring Saudi Arabia into the Abraham Accords through normalization with Israel. For these goals, Trump’s seemingly offhand remark about Israeli annexation of the West Bank is significant. Trump said that his team is working on the issue and will make an announcement over the next four weeks.

Four weeks. That time frame keeps Netanyahu’s coalition together through the negotiation of the second phase of the hostage deal. It also piles up the bargaining chips for a grand deal with Saudi Arabia. The offer to the kingdom: Drop the demand for a Palestinian state, and the United States will desist from occupying Gaza and green-lighting Israel’s annexation of the West Bank.

Will it work? Saudi Arabia might decide that Trump is too crazy to trust or the conditions too turbulent for a major diplomatic move. Four weeks is a short time – we will know soon enough.