Trump-Ishiba Meeting: What To Expect and What Should Ishiba Do?

After failing to secure a meeting with then President-elect Trump in November, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba how has his audience with the new president at the White House. The summit will be the introductory meeting between the two men and President Trump’s first meeting with an Asian leader in his second term.

While the delayed face to face may hamper Mr. Ishiba’s ability to establish the unique and positive rapport with the American president that his predecessor Shinzo Abe so ably pulled off, the Prime Minister will want to do his very best to get the relationship off to a positive start and to do no harm.

On the docket for discussion will be security and economic discussions. Prime Minister Ishiba will look to confirm that the Trump administration is committed to the US-Japan alliance which has served as the lynchpin of Indo-Pacific stability for decades.

Prime Minister Ishiba will want to know what the Trump White House’s intentions are in the Pacific and its chosen approach.

Of specific interest are China’s increasingly assertive behavior in Japan’s territorial waters surrounding the disputed Senkaku islands (called the Diaoyu by Beijing), joint Russia-China navy and air patrols off of Japan’s coast and aggression by Chinese vessels in the South China Sea.

Another area of focus is the security of Taiwan which Japan views as vital to protect its own islands in the region. Japan is concerned about President Trump’s past statements expressing doubt that Taiwan could be protected in the event of a Chinese invasion.

Policymakers in Tokyo are understandably worried about the president’s long-held criticisms of American trade with Taiwan and how this may contribute to the bargaining away of the island state as part of a future grand deal with Beijing.

On the economic front, the talks are likely to involve calls by Mr. Trump for stepped up Japanese investment in the US and for increased purchases of American liquified natural gas.

Another possible topic of discussion will be the revival of past demands by President Trump for Japan to increase the amount it pays for US military bases on Japanese soil.

What can Prime Minister Ishiba do, if anything, to avoid the reimposition of American tariffs as happened during Mr. Trump’s first term?

In addition to striking a personal bond with Mr. Trump, it is critical that Prime Minister Ishiba do the following:

•Pledge to help the US make progress on its urgent goal of expanding America’s shipbuilding and ship repair capacity.

•Show an awareness and sensitivity to Trump’s trade concerns by demonstrating a commitment to narrowing Japan’s trade deficit with the US.

•Speak to Trump’s economic security concerns over China’s strategy of hallowing out American and allied industrial bases and achieving leadership across vital sectors (semiconductors, critical minerals, AI, pharmaceuticals, renewable technologies, etc.), making the world dependent on China. Mr. Ishiba should communicate Japan’s intent to work with the US to push back against Beijing’s economic designs.

•Commit to purchasing more US military equipment, agricultural products and natural gas and oil.

•Increase investments in the US by building additional factories and hiring American workers.

•Demonstrate a willingness to work with Mr. Trump on addressing his burden sharing concerns on security issues. This involves demonstrating to the White House that it is developing military partnerships with friendly countries, thereby relieving Washington of some of its regional defense responsibilities.

•Communicate that Japan is contributing to hard power military measures by building up its own domestic defenses through increased military spending (beyond its already committed 2% of GDP) and by agreeing to host additional US intermediate to long range missile systems on their soil as a deterrence to China.

•Vowing to work with Washington on measures to prevent advanced semiconductors and semiconductor manufacturing equipment from entering China.

•Promising to improve Japan’s ability to safeguard intelligence to alleviate concerns over Tokyo’s ability to handle sensitive information. The end goal would be for Japan to step up its security responsibilities and contribute to the AUKUS security pact.

•Express a willingness to renegotiate more favorable terms of Nippon Steel’s proposed acquisition of US Steel. In particular, attempting to help address the political problem of the deal’s perceived threats to American sovereignty.

While the February 7 Trump-Ishiba has been billed as a meet and greet, using this first meeting to substantively address the 47^th president’s demands and concerns can get US-Japan ties off to a good start in this early phase of Trump 2.0.