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Simon Apfel

Trump’s Ultimatum: How a Ceasefire Became the Only Option

The ceasefire-hostage deal (if it gets over the line) was long overdue. The war had been dragging on for months for no discernible gain, soldiers losing their lives, Gazans’ misery deepening. Short of killing every single Hamas member (impossible) it’s not clear what continuing the war was achieving.

The terms of the deal are obviously not ideal, but I guess that’s what makes it a deal. The most worrying aspect by far is the murderous terrorists being released from Israeli prisons – though one would hope there are better contingency plans this time and that we don’t get another Sinwar situation (the dearly departed Hamas leader was released in the Gilad Shalit prisoner swap in 2011 and went on to mastermind October 7).

There are concerns that Hamas will use the deal to cling to power, but I think that’s unlikely. Hamas are pretty much spent as a political force – firstly because they’re militarily decimated, but more importantly, they have no remaining political capital: the Gulf states are dead-set against them returning to power, their backers in Iran have been severely weakened, the US won’t countenance it and of course neither will Israel (up until 7 Bibi turned a blind eye and even helped prop them up to an extent – but of course that would no longer be the case).

Hamas are also hated by the majority of Gaza’s population – according to recent and reliably independent polls, only 7% of Gazans want Hamas to continue governing the strip, and almost 90% of the population hold Hamas responsible for the current conflict.

 What finally (hopefully) sealed the deal? Sorry Trump fans, it’s unlikely that the incoming US president’s “there will be hell to pay if you don’t release the hostages” threat against Hamas played much of a part. It’s unclear practically what he would have done to Hamas that Israel hasn’t already tried to do. At this stage Hamas have been reduced to a band of underground guerilla fighters, and for all his bluster, Trump would have run into the same difficulties rooting them out that Israel has.

Where Trump most definitely did exert pressure was on Bibi (“the war in Gaza must be over by Jan 20”, Trump reportedly told the Israeli Prime Minister at their meeting in Mar-a-Lago a few months back).  Bibi looked like he was trying to ride out the Biden presidency, hoping Trump wouldn’t pose any conditions – in the end Trump posed the ultimate condition, a clear ultimatum.

Arab leaders involved in the negotiations have said Trump’s envoy Witkoff swayed Netanyahu more in one meeting than Biden has in a year. The simplest explanation for this is because Bibi realized the game was up and he had no choice – without American support for continuing the war, he had no basis for doing so.

That said, by many accounts, Witkoff is an impressive guy and a formidable negotiator, and he’s been adamant that the war must end.

The funny thing is, if people were saying the same thing about Biden or Harris or any of the Dems, the right would be up in arms – “how dare they interfere” – not praising their negotiation skills and heralding the deal as a major achievement.

Which it is. Hopefully.

About the Author
Born approximately 11,000kms west of Peru on an otherwise unremarkable day in 1982, Simon Apfel is one of the most celebrated holiday-makers of his generation. He is well known for his passionate defense of personal bios citing the fact that they’re written in the third person as proof of their objective truth. The fastest man on earth, Apfel later became the first human being to walk on the moon, uttering the immortal words, “Neil, I forgot my smokes in the shuttle, won’t you please bring them with you on your way down.” After leading India to independence in the 1940s, Apfel returned to South Africa to head up the anti-apartheid movement, standing alongside Matt Damon as he lifted the 1995 Rugby World Cup – a moment that instantaneously erased centuries of racial oppression and brought an end to socio-economic inequality for all time. In the years that followed, he turned his attention to writing, and under the nom de plume, “JK Rowling”, released the first in his “Harry Potter” series of books that would go on to sell more than 400 million copes worldwide. In 2007, Apfel swept the board at the Oscars (a ceremony he was regrettably unable to attend because he was in Stockholm accepting the Nobel Prize for physics for his work on kumquats), and later became the first person to win the Palme d’Or and the Ballon d’Or in the same year. In later years, Apfel has devoted himself to his charity foundation, APFAM, and recently announced he would be donating his entire wealth portfolio – believed to be in the region of $300 – to charity. Allegations that he is doing so for the tax breaks have so far proved unfounded. Apfel has been happily married to Scarlett Johannson since 2013. The follow-up to his acclaimed New York Times Bestseller, “The Bible”, is due out next year.
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