UAE Not Going Anywhere

Last month, the United Arab Emirates announced that it will reduce its forces significantly in Yemen. After this announcement UAE started pulling out its military hardware and thousands of troops from Yemen. The UAE is a major coalition partner in the Saudi-led military campaign which was launched to quash Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen. UAE has intervened in the Yemeni war since March 2015. Since the beginning of the Saudi-led campaign, Saudi Arabia has relied heavily on the UAE for air campaigns, intelligence gathering, on-the-ground operations, and training of Yemen’s anti-Houthi fighters. Since the start of the Arab Spring in 2010-2011 and rise in demands for democratic change in the Arab world, a special relationship developed between Saudi Arabia and the UAE that has served various common causes. But it looks like that now Abu Dhabi is parting its way from Riyadh in Yemen. The Saudis objectives in Yemeni war is to dislodge the Houthis from the capital Sanaa and weaken their military capabilities along the Saudi-Yemeni border. Years of devastating airstrikes and fighting have been unable to achieve either. But Emirati focus since from start was to install friendly administration and have major influence in the South Yemen especially along the coast.

This Emirati pull out is not a haphazard decision but a well-planned one which was being planned from quite some time now. Abu Dhabi feel now that its objectives in Yemen more or less are achieved and it’s a right time to reduce the force level. The UAE has already trained thousands of allied Yemeni forces and fighters which mainly operates in South and works as Emirati proxies. These proxies are comprised of tribesmen, former security forces and southern separatists and are heavily dependent on UAE for armaments and money. Emirati also effectively runs a paramilitary force known as the ‘The Security Belt’ that is outside the rule of both the Saudis and the Yemeni government and only reports to Abu Dhabi. Now United Arab Emirates is confident that these forces which it has nurtured can do their job and protect its interests very well in Yemen.

UAE’s long-term goals in Yemen are very clear that is to divide the country and create a southern state which will in effect be a client state of the UAE. In this way Abu Dhabi will be able to secure trade routes through the port of Aden to the rest of the world and exploit Yemen’s natural resources. To push these goals UAE is actively supporting southern secessionists movement called Southern Transitional Council (STC). Moreover, UAE has directed the STC to establish a parallel army to the ousted President Hadi controlled Yemeni military. This process is underway and once completed the STC’s military force will consist of more than 50,000 South Yemeni troops which will be supported by sizable numbers of Emirati technical advisors. Therefore, Abu Dhabi feels that it only has to nurture the forces which are allied to them rather than having its own regular troops in the war-torn country. Also, the rising unpopularity of the UAE’s military presence in southern Yemen also explains Abu Dhabi’s shift towards more indirect power projection. In mid-June, large anti-UAE protests erupted in the oil-rich Shabwah region and demonstrators have called for an end to the UAE’s occupation of southern Yemen. The civilian population of South and especially of Aden has started seeing Emirati forces as occupation forces. By empowering its local allied forces, the UAE is confident that it will be able to shroud its hegemony in southern Yemen and prevent large-scale popular unrest that would weaken its long-term influence.

The Arab coalition have been the target of global condemnation for the way in which they have conducted the Yemeni war in which thousands of innocent civilians have died. Abu Dhabi is very much concern about its international image and don’t want to be labelled as the state which doesn’t give a damn about war crimes and human rights abuses. So, withdrawal of most of its forces will place global attention on the coalition’s killing of civilians squarely on Saudi Arabia. As Riyadh will likely continue its bombing campaign, while the UAE has adopted its own strategy, creating an illusion that it is less involved in the conflict. Across the Yemeni map, the UAE has created a complex network of local allies, loyal military formations that run their interests in Yemen, and they are capable to fulfil the UAE’s geopolitical ambitions on Abu Dhabi’s behalf. The UAE remains firmly committed to advancing its strategic interests in Yemen. The UAE is most likely to preserve its hegemony over southern Yemen and could exert considerable influence over Yemen’s future political trajectory. So, this force reduction of UAE should not be seen as Emirati exit from the Yemeni conflict. Rather than it should be considered as beginning of next phase of Abu Dhabi’s involvement.