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Emanuele Rossi

USA2024: Middle East Dilemma in US-China Cunundrum

The report “The Next US Administration and China Policy”, published by the Crisis Group, highlights the growing tensions between the US and China, particularly as the world’s two most powerful countries increasingly clash over several global issues. The report urges the next US administration to prioritize containing these tensions to preserve global stability. Particular interesting is that broader convergence point: as VP and Dems candidate Kamala Harris potentially inherits this complex landscape as well, her administration must factor in the Middle East, a region deeply entwined with the US-China rivalry, where crises can exacerbate or alleviate global tensions.

Middle East turbulence and its impact on US-China competition

Building on the Biden administration’s approach, Harris would likely continue focusing on reinforcing US domestic strength, aligning with allies, and strategically competing with China. And the Middle East remains a key focal point in this competition. Philip Gordon, Assistant to the President and National Security Advisor to Vice President Kamala Harris, has frequently discussed the limits of US intervention in reshaping the Middle East, advocating for policies that contain rather than exacerbate crises. His cautionary stance, detailed in his 2020 book “Losing the Long Game: The False Promise of Regime Change in the Middle East”, reinforces how managing regional instability is crucial to broader US foreign policy objectives. This balance of engagement without overreach will likely influence US strategy toward China.

Gordon is widely recognized for his expertise in European and Middle Eastern affairs. He has served as assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian affairs (2009-2013) and as White House coordinator for the Middle East (2013-2015). As national security advisor to the vice president, his portfolio has expanded to cover Asia, reflecting his broad experience in global policy and strategic developments across multiple regions.

While Gordon’s reflections on the Middle East highlight the difficulty of reshaping the region, his vision of dual responsibility over Asian and Middle Eastern affairs underscores the broader geopolitical stakes. As China strengthens its influence and the US confronts deepening instability in the Gulf, Iran, and beyond, this intersection of regional and global challenges increasingly defines US-China relations. Ensuring stability in the Middle East could provide the US with greater leverage against China.

“Having helped drive the administration’s effort to rebalance US foreign policy despite turbulence in Europe and the Middle East, the Harris team would likely aim to build on that legacy, which includes a three-pronged approach to China: invest in US capacity at home, align with allies and partners and compete with Beijing where warranted,” Crisis Group explains.

The rivalry between the US and China in the Middle East

The US-China rivalry in the Middle East has significant implications for regional and global politics. The Region’s vital role in international energy markets, strategic trade routes, and geopolitical complexity make it a battleground for influence between these two powers. The US focuses primarily on security and defense cooperation, maintaining close alliances with critical actors like Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. Although traditionally focused on securing its economic interests, China is increasingly expanding its regional military presence and cooperation with regional actors (such as the UAE).

Beijing’s approach has been cautious, avoiding taking sides in conflicts, but its growing influence raises concerns for US policymakers. The US sees China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) as a threat to its regional interests, particularly as it promotes Chinese influence and increases economic competition. This growing competition could exacerbate regional conflicts, lead to an arms race, and challenge the US’s dominant position in Middle Eastern affairs. However, as Jennifer Kavanagh and Frederic Wehrey argue, the US could benefit from embracing a multi-alignment approach, recognizing the positive aspects of China’s regional presence while maintaining its security dominance.

A more integrated approach could turn the Middle East into a testing ground for cooperation between the US and China, focusing on areas where mutual interests converge, such as economic development and infrastructure projects. Acknowledging China’s role without securitizing its presence could create more space for US leadership in security matters while encouraging positive Chinese contributions to regional stability. This approach would allow Middle Eastern states to maximize their economic potential without being forced to choose sides. Is it wishful thinking? Probably…

Resource strains on US strategy and the role of military supply

A significant challenge lies in the strain on US military resources. As The New York Times by Eric Schmitt and Helene Cooper reported, Pentagon officials are increasingly concerned that the flow of arms to Ukraine and the Middle East may weaken the US military’s capacity to respond to potential crises in the Pacific, including those involving China. This concern reinforces how interconnected global conflicts have become, with the Middle East serving as a critical variable in the US’s ability to maintain global readiness.

Middle East tensions as a critical variable in US-China relations

As Harris faces the challenges of US-China competition, the Middle East will remain a critical region that will influence the broader strategy. Whether through addressing instability in Yemen or balancing Iranian influence, the region’s volatility will likely play a decisive role in shaping US leverage over China. The Crisis Group’s report underscores the importance of managing this delicate balance to ensure global stability in the coming years. In particular, the Middle East could serve as a ground for mutual accommodation, where economic and security interests do not necessarily clash but can complement each other. “Yet amid escalating wars in Europe and the Middle East and shrinking domestic political space for creative diplomacy toward China, the official acknowledged that saying ‘we need a new blueprint’ would be difficult”.

About the Author
Emanuele Rossi is an international affairs analyst, specializing in the Indo-Mediterranean region. His work focuses on the global interconnections of the Enlarged Mediterranean, with a keen eye on the Indo-Pacific.
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