Were the Gaza Bombings Random? A Statistical Look at the Numbers

HISTORY MATTERS BECAUSE FACTS MATTER

Were the Gaza Bombings Random?
A Statistical Look at the Numbers

Israeli airstrikes and military actions in Gaza have, according to the numbers released by Hamas, killed nearly 69,000 people by November 2025, including roughly 20,000 children. This number of children represents substantially less that one-third of total casualties despite children making up almost half the population of Gaza. A statistical analysis shows children are significantly underrepresented among the casualties compared to what random targeting would predict. This indicates the bombings were not indiscriminate with regard to age, suggesting a notable pattern of selectivity to avoid children’s casualties rather than a pattern of randomness and even less so one of intentional targeting.

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If it is true that the death of a single child is a tragedy, the accusation that Israel carries out indiscriminate attacks on the population in Gaza and purposely kills a great number of children is not only naturally absurd for any supporter of Israel but should also be logically absurd for any thinking being.

But let’s take it one step at a time and consider the issue from a purely technical point of view, as a problem of statistics.

The statistical facts: Population Proportions and Expected Casualties

As of November 2025, the official death toll in Gaza provided by the health ministry of the terrorist group Hamas and generally accepted and disseminated without further questioning and without any critical sense in most media outlets, exceeds 69,000 people, of which approximately 20,000 were children. The significant increase in documented casualties since May 2025 reflects both the ongoing toll and increased identification of previously unidentified bodies recovered from rubble, as well as deaths from disease and malnutrition resulting from the conflict’s destruction of civilian infrastructure.

Based on these figures and ignoring the extreme measures routinely used by the Israel Defense Forces to warn civilian populations of impending attacks, Israel is accused of attacking Gaza indiscriminately in general if not even going out of its way to kill children.

Yet given the number of casualties and widespread destruction, important questions arise: were the bombings indiscriminate or random? Were certain groups, notably children, disproportionately affected? Is there any indication that children were a preferred target?

One way to approach this question is through statistical methods. In Gaza, approximately 47% of the population is made up of children under the age of 18, according to the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics. If the attacks had been truly random—that is, targeting the population without regard to age or location—one would expect the proportion of children among the dead to be similar: approximately 32,500 child victims among the 69,000 dead. However, the recorded number of child deaths—approximately 20,000—is significantly lower, representing about 29% of total casualties.

Statistical Significance: The Z-Test and its implications

To understand what this represents, statisticians apply a proportion test, which assesses whether an observed piece of data deviates significantly from what would be expected under a given hypothesis, in this case, the random bombing hypothesis. The result of this type of test is a z-value, which indicates how many standard deviations separate the observed value from the expected mean. In this case, the z-value is approximately -95.3, an absolutely extreme value.

To give an idea, in scientific studies a result is usually considered statistically significant when the z value exceeds ±1.96 (which corresponds to a 95% confidence level). A z-value of –95.3 is well beyond this limit—it represents a deviation of nearly 95 standard deviations from what would be expected under a hypothesis of random targeting. Statistically speaking, the probability that only approximately 20,000 children would die in a truly random bombing scenario of this population is zero.

The magnitude of this statistical departure illustrates a fundamental principle in hypothesis testing: the larger the sample size, the more precisely we can detect patterns in the data. With nearly 70,000 deaths, even a small systematic difference in targeting between children and adults becomes unmistakably evident. Children make up 38.5% less of the casualty count than their proportion of the population would predict under random targeting—a gap of approximately 12,500 fewer deaths than expected.

Simply put: The data do not support the idea that the bombings were random or indiscriminate with respect to age. The disproportionately low number of child deaths suggests that the targets were largely areas with fewer child presences—such as military installations or critical infrastructure—or that children were systematically protected more effectively than adults. In either case, the numbers point to a pattern of selectivity, not randomness. The statistical evidence is so overwhelming that alternative explanations require extraordinary justification.

Beyond Statistics: Moral and Political Context

Of course, statistics alone do not eliminate the moral, legal or humanitarian issues involved in war. However, when it comes to assessing intent, discrimination, and accountability, statistical analysis can help reveal patterns that might otherwise go unnoticed. And in this case, even the highly dubious numbers provided by Hamas testify to a pattern of selectivity in the protection of Gaza’s children by the Israeli armed forces. In the absence of even the slightest evidence that Hamas has sought to protect children or anyone else in Gaza other than its operatives, these numbers make it clear how careful Israel has been in this regard.

And there is no point in talking about the blood shed by children who are victims of wars in Afghanistan, Yemen, Libya, Western Sahara, Syria, Sudan, etc., etc. etc. For the abominable Islamists and their no less abominable radical leftist partners the blood spilled by these children is not worth a thought or a word, much less an action. Children in these conflict areas have had the misfortune not to have been victims of Israel and are therefore condemned to be ignored without any concern or remorse.

Conclusion

I hope and pray for a future where no children are victims of war. But when it comes to the question of intent and discrimination in the Gaza conflict, the statistical evidence is clear: Israel’s actions do not reflect random or indiscriminate targeting of children. The numbers themselves, even when provided by adversarial sources, testify to a deliberate effort to avoid child casualties.