Why did Saudi prince Mohammed bin Salman change his rhetoric about Israel?

Over the past few weeks, Mohammed bin Salman’s sharp criticism of Israel and overtures toward Iran have raised eyebrows across Washington and beyond. At a November 11 summit of Islamic nations in Riyadh, the Saudi crown prince accused Israel of committing “collective genocide” in Gaza and urged the international community — implicitly the United States — to compel Israel to respect Iran’s sovereignty. These statements mark a stark departure from the crown prince’s previously hostile rhetoric toward Iran and his often pragmatic stance on normalization with Israel.

For years, Saudi leaders had signaled that normalization with Israel was a question of “when,” not “if.” Even amid rising tensions and accusations of Israeli atrocities in Gaza, Mohammed bin Salman refrained from using inflammatory language like “genocide.” So, what has changed? There are three plausible explanations for this apparent pivot, each revealing different layers of strategy, domestic pressures, and regional dynamics.

One possibility is that the crown prince’s statements are a calculated opening move in negotiations with President-elect Donald Trump’s team over a long-discussed US-Saudi security pact. By signaling a closer relationship with Iran, Mohammed bin Salman may be seeking to increase his leverage. Trump has promised to reimpose “maximum pressure” on Iran, and the Saudis could use this moment to extract concessions from the incoming administration. This approach would be reminiscent of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s tactics a decade ago, leveraging ties with adversaries to gain US attention and support. However, this theory seems out of character for Mohammed bin Salman, who has rarely engaged in Erdogan-style diplomatic theatrics.

A more compelling explanation is that the crown prince is temporarily distancing Saudi Arabia from Israel due to public outrage over the war in Gaza. In recent weeks, Saudi citizens and officials have expressed intense anger over the devastation in Gaza, with the Biden administration facing harsh criticism for its perceived complicity. While Mohammed bin Salman wields near-absolute power, he is not immune to public sentiment. Moving forward with normalization under these circumstances would be politically costly, even for him.

The crown prince’s rhetoric also serves as a warning to Trump’s team. The incoming administration places great importance on normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia, but Trump’s approach — particularly his apparent tolerance for Israeli settlement expansion — could make that goal unattainable. Trump’s appointment of Mike Huckabee, a staunch advocate for Israeli sovereignty over the West Bank, as ambassador to Israel underscores this concern. Mohammed bin Salman may be signaling that normalization cannot proceed if it is accompanied by annexation or other inflammatory moves.

Finally, the most convincing explanation for the shift lies in Mohammed bin Salman’s evolving understanding of Saudi Arabia’s place in the region. After years of aggressive foreign policy moves — including interventions in Yemen and Libya, a blockade on Qatar, and an unprecedented resignation forced upon Lebanon’s prime minister — the crown prince has little to show for his efforts. These ventures failed to achieve their objectives and often backfired, leaving Saudi Arabia more isolated and embroiled in regional conflicts.

Now, Mohammed bin Salman appears to be prioritizing stability within the kingdom. With hundreds of billions of dollars invested in his ambitious Vision 2030 projects — like the futuristic city of Neom and the Qiddiya Coast tourism hub — he needs calm at home and abroad to ensure their success. Leaning toward Iran may not reflect newfound trust but rather a pragmatic desire to minimize regional chaos. By reducing tensions with Tehran, Mohammed bin Salman aims to keep external distractions at bay, even if it means enduring domestic criticism or making concessions on foreign policy.

While the crown prince’s pivot does not indicate a wholesale shift in Saudi Arabia’s strategic outlook, it highlights the complex balancing act he faces. Public anger over Gaza, diplomatic calculations with the United States, and the need for domestic stability are all driving factors. Mohammed bin Salman may still see normalization with Israel as a long-term goal, but for now, the crown prince is playing a cautious and calculated game, ensuring that Saudi Arabia’s immediate priorities take precedence over grandiose geopolitical ambitions.