It’s not a secret that Iran wants to use its nukes on Israel. In fact, Ahmadinenjad has repeatedly said that, Israel, “should be wiped off the face of the earth.”
But if there’s one thing that Bibi can be counted on, it’s taking care of Iran. Sure, Bibi stinks at dealing with Hamas and Abu Mazen. He doesn’t know how to stand up to illegal Arab building — whether it’s in the Negev or the PA.
But Iran is a red line that he’s not willing to cross. This, at least.
And so the question is: When, and how, will Israel strike Iran?
The answer is truly not simple. First of all, the moment we strike Iran, we’ll have Hezbollah’s chemical weapons raining down on us. The North will suffer the most, but there are enough long-range missiles to make Jerusalem, Tel Aviv, and possibly even Be’er Sheva suffer quite a bit.
Secondly, we only get one chance to successfully strike at Iran. That means that if we blow it — we blow it. End. And we have a major problem: Our planes may be able to get safely *to* Iran (every country in the Middle East wants Iran’s nukes neutralized and will be willing to help out), but we have no guarantees that our soldiers will make it safely *from* Iran back to Israel. Plus, we need a safe place to land and refuel. How’s that going to happen?
Third, we need to take into consideration both Hamas and the PA. Neither of them will be happy if we strike at Iran, and both will try to start up. That means we need plans in place to deal with our “home-grown” terrorists *before* we strike Iran.
In addition, it bears remembering that Hezbollah, operating out of both Syria and Lebanon, is basically a branch of Iran. Operating in war-torn Syria are both Assad’s forces and Russian forces, and here we have a problem: Assad may not want to start up with Israel — he can’t afford it, and needs our steadying presence — but he owes an enormous debt to Hezbollah, and can’t afford to default.
That means that the moment we strike Hezbollah, we are fighting both Hezbollah and Assad. And Russia — well, Russia does not want to get involved. But they may have to, for reasons which I may explain later.
Where does all this leave us? In four words: in a sticky situation.
Israel will figure it out, however.
Until now, we had Ya’alon as Defense Minister. Ya’alon was not willing to take such drastic steps, and preferred a more laid-back, shoot-them-down-as-they-pop-up approach. It worked only somewhat with the PA and Hamas, and it won’t work at all with Iran. And so, Ya’alon has been replaced, by the more radical Lieberman. We know what Lieberman’s rhetoric is — now we need to see if his opinions are “real” or are just PR blurbs.
Will Lieberman, as defense minister, give an okay for an Iran strike? I believe that he will, and I believe that this will be Israel’s greatest military feat since Entebbe, and even greater than that.
How will we pull of a successful strike on Iran? That we will leave for the next article.