Will the removal of Fakhrizadeh stop the Iranian regime’s nuclear program?

The attack on the life of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, known as the nuclear father of the Islamic Republic, has raised the suspicion in the minds of political scientists and international analysts that his physical removal means the end of the Tehran regime’s efforts to achieve a nuclear warhead for ballistic missiles.

Regardless of how it happened, Fakhri Zadeh’s assassination had consequences, including creating political turmoil in announcing the positions of the Islamic Republic’s officials and revealing a deep rift in the governing structure, which seems to be due to the shock of the coup. According to the security agents of the Islamic Republic, it was a skill that went beyond their calculations.

Intense fear of the response

Iranian regime officials became deeply confused and fearful of immediate revenge after the ouster of Fakhrizadeh. “Now is not the time to respond and act emotionally, but we must respond promptly,” said Kowsari, a former member of parliament for the Iranian regime and a senior member of the Revolutionary Guards, and Ali Motahari, a former member of Tehran’s conservative faction in parliament.

This photo released by the semi-official Fars News Agency shows the scene where Mohsen Fakhrizadeh was killed in Absard, a small city just east of the capital, Tehran, Iran, Friday, Nov. 27, 2020. Fakhrizadeh, an Iranian scientist that Israel alleged led the Islamic Republic’s military nuclear program until its disbanding in the early 2000s was “assassinated” Friday, state television said. (Fars News Agency via AP)

Does Tehran have the ability to respond? Was the Iranian regime capable of responding quickly though?

The fact is that Tehran is in an unfavorable situation due to the isolation caused by the Israeli military and diplomatic movements in the region and has lost the power of initiative. They are worried about the response they will receive after their initial attack.

Both the US and Israeli governments have made it clear to the Iranian regime leaders that their ill-considered reaction could have a devastating response.

Last year, when the Iranian government launched a missile attack on the Ain al-Assad military base in response to the killing of Qassem Soleimani, their missiles landed in remote areas, but before that weak response, the Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif was allowed to leave. The leaders of the regime had informed the embassies of several foreign countries in Tehran about the attack’s time and manner.
Now the question is, why is the Iranian regime’s leader reluctant to respond in the current situation?

When the Islamic Republic government officials say “we respond at the right time,” it seems that they mean the right time, when they have achieved the key to weapons, namely nuclear weapons.
Speaking of revenge at the right time means that by pursuing a policy of patience and pretending to be weak, even after the physical removal of their nuclear operatives, they intend to act at the right time with a destructive weapon.

If the Iranian regime reacted swiftly to Fakhrizadeh’s physical removal, it would face a lightning strike on its nuclear facilities, and as a result, everything it had secretly spun over the years would become cotton.

That is why they are thinking of staying calm to carry out their military nuclear program in peace.

In complete composure!

“The path of these people will continue because if we will, no one can stop us,” said Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of the Iranian regime, a few years ago, after the physical removal of one of the Iranian regime’s nuclear scientists.

He means that the knowledge of the person who was killed was passed on to other people from his colleagues, and as a result, their hands are not tied. Accordingly, it can be said that the removal of Fakhrizadeh and others like him or his colleagues in the past, although slowing down the Iranian regime’s access to nuclear weapons, still maintained their original intentions and strategic plan to acquire weapons.

The regime of the Islamic Republic has always tried to pursue a policy of patience and buy time after each targeting of its nuclear scientists while pretending to stop atomic activities so that they do not answer the IAEA questions and stay away from it. Gossip about their covert action to make warheads.

To this end, the Iranian regime’s parliament has obtained the necessary excuse after Fakhrizadeh’s assassination and voted to promote uranium enrichment.

The Iranian regime bound for secrecy before the killing of Fakhrizadeh

Illustrative: A Fateh-110 ballistic missile, displayed at an Iranian armed forces parade in 2012. (military.ir/Wikimedia Commons)

Evidence suggests that before the killing of Fakhrizadeh, the Iranian government was pursuing a so-called strategic plan to lift sanctions, according to which the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran is required to produce 120 percent enriched uranium at 120 kilograms. It is used in nuclear facilities, and the government is obliged to force Borjam’s European partners to buy the Iranian regime’s oil within a month and establish a banking exchange.

Abolfazl Amoui, the spokesman of the National Security and Foreign Policy Commission of the Islamic Republic of Iran, revealed just a few days after Fakhrizadeh’s death that five crucial articles of the plan were approved in the months before the killing of Fakhrizadeh and the rest of the clauses after his death.

Although such parliamentary threats are made in the form of a suspension of the protocol after each physical removal of those involved in the Iranian regime’s nuclear affairs, the worrying issue is that the Iranian government in the project called “Amad” for which Fakhrizadeh was responsible, The nuclear warhead had made progress that was unprecedented from nine years ago to the present. Of course, the Iranian government has denied any involvement in this matter.

However, it later emerged that the Iranian regime was secretly pursuing this goal, despite its promise not to get involved in the warhead’s construction.
This level of readiness of the Iranian regime today can be a trump card for extortion, especially since the Islamic Republic has high hopes for the spirit of appeasement, so there is no doubt that by removing Fakhrizadeh from the cycle of nuclear interactions of the ruling regime in Iran, no. Not only does it not stop, but it also makes them bolder to reach the weapon.

It should be noted that when Fakhrizadeh succeeded in obtaining the knowledge of access to nuclear weapons from Abdul Qadir Khan, the father of the Pakistani atomic bomb, they have since learned the science of how to mount a warhead on a ballistic missile. As a result, it seems that the Iranian government’s agents will continue their efforts to achieve a nuclear weapon without Fakhrizadeh, hoping that they will all take their revenge on the world once and for all after reaching a nuclear weapon.

In this Dec. 29, 2016 file photo, released by the semi-official Iranian Students News Agency (ISNA), a long-range S-200 missile is fired in a military drill in the port city of Bushehr, on the northern coast of Persian Gulf, Iran. (Amir Kholousi, ISNA via AP, File)

The expansionist regime of Iran is not subject to individuals

Undoubtedly, a simplistic view of the current state of the Iranian regime’s nuclear program after the removal of Fakhrizadeh and at least underestimation of their intention and motivation to continue the nuclear program will lead to Tehran narrowing its distance from its goals every day and in an utterly predictable day will surprise the world with a stunning surprise.
It should not be forgotten that the Iranian regime’s view of its nuclear program is a strategic one, parallel with regional expansionism. The removal of Soleimani and Fakhrizadeh, while it may slow down their journey to the destination, will not ignore their dangerous expansionism nature of the regime.

About the Author
Iranian journalist, blogger and human rights activist. Based in London, Hamidreza is the Times of Israel Persian service correspondent & Editor.
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