A New Mideast Alliance
On August 8, a day after Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan announced the formation of a joint defence pact, Pakistani Defence Minister Khawaja Asif spoke bluntly. Claiming that Israel is an “illegitimate state” and a “threat to the entire Muslim world,” he called for a “united military front” against the Jewish state.
Asif’s inflammatory comments, which may be an accurate barometer of Muslim public opinion, were hardly surprising.
Several months ago, as Pakistan attempted to mediate an agreement to end the war between the United States and Iran, he branded Israel as an evil “cancerous state” and “a curse for humanity.”
Since its creation in 1947, Pakistan has been hostile to Israel and has never considered forging formal diplomatic relations with it. Pakistan’s position is clear. Pakistan will not recognize Israel unless it accedes to the creation of a Palestinian state along the pre-1967 lines, with East Jerusalem as its capital.
In the meantime, Pakistan and its two Sunni Muslim partners share concerns over Israel’s expanding military strength and reach. But they are also concerned by the regional influence of Iran, the preeminent Shi’a Muslim state in the Middle East.
Saudi Arabia, the seat of Islam, particularly views Iran with a jaundiced eye. Especially since the eruption of the Iran war last winter, Saudi Arabia has come under constant attack by Iran and its proxy, the Houthis of Yemen.
Pakistan and Turkey do not regard Iran as a threat. Pakistan’s primary foe is India, an ally of Israel. Turkey’s main enemy, the Kurds, demand statehood within Turkish boundaries.
Of the three signatories, only Turkey has diplomatic ties with Israel. With the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war in the Gaza Strip in 2023, Turkey’s relationship with Israel deteriorated markedly.
Turkey, which has one of the largest conventional forces in the NATO alliance, has curtailed political and commercial relations with Israel. Recently, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said that Israel has become a “burden that humanity can no longer bear.”
Turkey’s hostility has been met with a sharp Israeli response.
Foreign Minister Gideon Saar interpreted Fidan’s remark as “a clear call for genocide.” And in a reference to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Turkey is “governed by a man who calls openly for the annihilation of Israel … and talks openly about conquering Jerusalem.” Diaspora Affairs Minister Amichai Chikli has compared Erdogan to Adolf Hitler.
That being said, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif described the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement as a regional “shield of peace.” Erdogan claimed that it “does not target any country” and remains “open to the participation of all brotherly countries seeking peace, prosperity and stability.” Saudi officials said that it poses no threat to regional security.
However, one of its key provisions stipulates that any armed attack against any of the three signatories would be regarded as an attack on all. Fidan likened it to NATO’s Article 5 mutual defence clause, which has been used only once.
According to Al Jazeera, the pact brings together three regional powers with complementary strengths.
Saudi Arabia offers capital, geographic position, political weight, and a substantial defence market. Turkey contributes an advanced military-industrial base in drones, missiles, naval platforms, and electronic systems. Pakistan adds a large and experienced military, significant strategic capabilities, and the distinction of being the pact’s only nuclear-armed member.
The three countries can field almost 1.4 million soldiers, 3,400 aircraft, 6,000 tanks and more than 340 naval assets, the Global Firepower Index says in its 2026 report.
Saudi Arabia and Pakistan already had a mutual-defence agreement. For decades now, Pakistan has provided technical and training assistance to Saudi Arabia. During this year’s war in Iran, Pakistan provided Saudi Arabia with 8,000 troops, a squadron of fighter aircraft and air-defence equipment.
This does not mean that Pakistan has formally placed its nuclear arsenal under a Saudi or Turkish umbrella.
Probably the most important aspect of the pact is that it represents a major Saudi move toward strategic independence. Saudi Arabia has relied heavily on the United States for its security. But the Saudis wonder whether Washington can, or will, protect it in a crunch.
Iran’s ballistic missile attacks on Saudi oil facilities in 2019, and the glaring failure of a U.S. retaliatory response, were an important turning point. Israeli air strikes in Qatar in 2025, aimed at killing several top-ranking Hamas officials, further demonstrated to Arab Gulf states that even a close U.S. ally can be vulnerable.
The Mecca pact therefore gives Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman the possibility of alternative security relationships. It fits in with the broader Saudi policy of diversifying its relationships among international and regional powers.
The new agreement means that an Iranian attack on Saudi Arabia could potentially involve Pakistan and Turkey. Iran may have no choice but to tread more carefully in the future. Yet it would be incorrect to call the pact an anti-Iran alliance. Nevertheless, Iran may be watching it nervously.
Saudi Arabia and Iran made substantial efforts in 2023 to reduce mutual hostility, but they remain rivals. During the 2026 Iran war, Iranian ballistic missiles and drones struck critical Saudi Arabian infrastructure, imperilling oil and gas exports and deepening Saudi mistrust of Iran.
The pact may produce an unintended consequence. If Iran concludes that it is facing an emerging Sunni bloc, it may react by strengthening military relations with Russia, China and regional proxies such as Hezbollah and the Houthis.
Ultimately, the pact may create a new bridge between the Middle East and South Asia. This could be more important than its military provisions.
Turkey may well be its most surprising member. Unlike Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, Turkey already belongs to NATO and therefore possesses a security relationship with the United States and Europe. Its participation in the new pact suggests that Erdogan wants Turkey to have multiple strategic options rather than relying exclusively on NATO. Turkey, too, has increasingly sought to extend its influence in the Arab and broader Muslim world.
Turkey’s defence industry, which manufactures an array of equipment, may complement Pakistani and Saudi capabilities.
The pact could facilitate joint weapons production, military training, intelligence sharing, joint exercises, air-defence cooperation, drone development and naval cooperation.
Looking ahead, it may evolve into one of two things, or a combination of both.
It may focus on building deterrence against Israel and counterbalancing Iranian hegemony. Alternatively, it could morph into an industrial-military partnership rather than a mutual defence assistance arrangement.
If it all works out as planned, the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement could be a consequential development in the annals of the Middle East. On the other hand, it could be nothing more than an exercise in public relations.
