Iran, Israel and Trump: What’s Next?

At 7 AM IDT on June 24, 2025, and after 12 days of war, Israel and Iran agreed to a ceasefire, under the direction of US President Trump. If the ceasefire holds, the “battle damage assessment” (BDA) will start. Here are the key questions and issues to look for:

1) In Iran, the BDA will focus first on regime survival. Are popular opposition forces strong and organized enough to replace the fanatics that took power in 1979? Did Israeli strikes on internal repression centers open options for a wider revolt?

2) Regarding Iran’s conventional military including IRGC – the IDF killed a large segment of senior officers – the command structure is severely weakened, and training replacements will take time. Also, key assets were destroyed – air defense, antique mini-airforce, drone and missile production, etc. This leaves Iran even more vulnerable, and forces the regime to either divert massive funds to restoring at least parts of the conventional military, or abandoning these security dimensions.  

3) Iran’s BDA must also determine the strategic assets that remain, and then decide on what can be salvaged, and with what priority and budget? There is a great deal of speculation on the location of the HEU (highly enriched uranium) that was produced for bomb making – it may be buried, all or in part, under the remains of Fordo, Natanz or another nuclear site. Even if the regime still possesses the HEU, did the facilities and engineers for making a weapon survive Israel’s precise strikes? Can they rebuild in less than 20 years, and at what cost? 

4) The quantity of Iranian missiles and launchers were depleted continuously – in the final 48 hours, they were down from 250/day to less than 20. (But each missile that hits a populated area does major damage – 28 civilians dead, many more injured, 1000s in temporary housing.) Israel is unlikely to allow any rebuilding or movement of remaining missiles. Similarly, and in contrast to the Russia war on Ukraine, almost all of the hundreds of drones were intercepted – these weapons were useless. This leaves Iran even more vulnerable, and forces the regime to either divert massive funds to restoring at least parts, or abandoning these security dimensions.  

5) In the civil and economic realms, Iran’s BDA will reveal the extent of damage to energy, communication, transportation and other parts of the infrastructure – the damage is likely to be major and require years to repair. The economy was already very weak – the war has further crippled these sectors, and added to the regime’s fragility.

6) Turning to Israel, Israel’s BDA: through 12 days and nights of missile attacks, including direct hits causing death and destruction, the society demonstrated strong resistance and unity. Civil defense authorities acted quickly to issue warnings, and the population followed instructions. Many lives, although not all, unfortunately, were saved. 

7) All parts of the @IDF, Mossad etc. planned and performed brilliantly. The first 24 hours were total “shock and awe.” And they are probably already preparing for the next war, because we live in a rough neighborhood.

8) Layers of missile and drone defense, combined with early warning and underground shelters proved very robust, particularly during the initial phase. There was some decline in the final days, resulting in a number of deaths after building hits, perhaps due to low stocks of interceptors or adjustments in Iranian tactics. BDA will lead to improvements. 

9) Netanyahu emerges much stronger. He and Zamir (IDF Chief of Staff) displayed steady and strong leadership. They must now bring home the 20 living hostages and bodies of the dead, and close off the Gaza war, permanently locking out the terror-allied UN and NGO aid industry. Then Netanyahu can retire.

10) Support and coordination w/ Trump & US were crucial in this huge victory. (If Democrats held power, the war and outcome would have been very different.) Most other democracies did slogans (Europe, UK, Canada, Australia) although, for a change, without condescension and “international law” condemnations. The UN & NGO industry were and will remain excluded and irrelevant.

11) The US (specifically Trump) is the indispensable everything, particularly in the MidEast, while echoing in Beijing and Moscow. Israel set the table – the B-2s and cruise missiles finished off the regime’s nuclear weapons ambitions, and ended the war. No boots on the ground – this is not Afghanistan or Iraq.