From Kibbutz to the global stage
Iran, Trump and Netanyahu: Escalation or a Deal the Week after US Midterms?
WTI crude oil is trading today at $103.8 per barrel, according to OilPrice.com—a level that reflects market concerns about escalation and supply disruptions amid the continuing confrontation between the United States and Iran.
On the one hand, there are reports of American military transport aircraft landing in Israel and at US bases across the Middle East. On the other, diplomatic efforts have continued throughout this week and the previous one.
Neither side appears eager for renewed war, but an escalation could follow if no agreement is reached.
Trump has granted concessions concerning imports of Russian diesel, while press reports have described difficulties Ukraine is experiencing with satellite navigation systems. Marco Rubio has held meetings in Central Asia and India. Steve Witkoff met with Vladimir Putin, and the emir of Qatar and Iran’s president subsequently visited Moscow. Pete Hegseth visited Israel, while Pakistan’s army chief visited Iran.
Vice President JD Vance reportedly approached the Iranians directly with a proposal to resume bilateral negotiations. Trump qualified that account, describing the outreach as concerning assistance with medical equipment.
This weekend, G20 foreign ministers, including representatives from China and Russia, are gathering in Atlanta ahead of the leaders’ summit scheduled for December in Miami. Putin, whom Trump has invited to attend, has yet to confirm his participation.
Another meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to take place in China in November, and Trump is considering inviting Putin as well.
In my assessment, this flurry of diplomacy may reflect an effort to persuade Iran, including through the major powers, that reaching an agreement is in its interest. At the same time, there are indications of preparations for possible military action.
According to The Wall Street Journal, Admiral Brad Cooper, commander of US Central Command, met on Thursday with President Trump, Secretary of War Pete Hegseth and General Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, to present military options.
The political situation in both Israel and the United States adds another layer of complexity.
Netanyahu has lost the parliamentary majority his bloc previously held. When Israel’s new Knesset is sworn in on Tuesday, November 10, parties outside his bloc will hold 67 seats, including 19 belonging to the Arab parties, compared with 53 seats for parties supporting him.
Those 67 lawmakers do not constitute a unified governing coalition. Nevertheless, Netanyahu’s opponents could make governing more difficult even without immediately forming an alternative government, although that possibility also remains open.
The Arab parties played a decisive role in the shift, mobilizing exceptionally high numbers of voters in some localities and increasing their combined representation by nine seats, from 10 to 19—a rise of 90 percent.
In the US midterm elections on Tuesday, November 3, polling suggests that Trump risks losing his party’s narrow majority in the House of Representatives and seeing its Senate majority reduced.
The newly elected US Congress will take office only in January. Israel’s new Knesset, by contrast, will convene on November 10. Parliamentary pressure on Netanyahu’s government could therefore begin in roughly ten days, while any change in the balance of power in Congress will take longer to acquire institutional force.
Yesterday, Gadi Eisenkot, leader of Yashar, the second-largest party after Likud, announced his intention to pursue legislative initiatives as soon as the new Knesset convenes.
Alongside these initiatives, the parties opposing Netanyahu are preparing to seek the election of a new Knesset speaker and new parliamentary committee chairs. They also intend to pursue the repeal of existing laws they regard as harmful to democracy.
Their proposed measures include sanctions on those evading military service, the establishment of a state commission of inquiry into the events of October 7, 2023, and legislation restricting the ability of a person facing criminal charges to serve as prime minister.
The week following the US elections could therefore place Netanyahu and Trump in a particularly sensitive political position. A window for an agreement—or for escalation—may emerge.
The American election results will already be known, but the new Congress will not yet have taken office. In Israel, however, the new Knesset will be able to begin exerting parliamentary pressure on Netanyahu’s government as early as November 10.
This difference in timing may influence Trump’s and Netanyahu’s calculations regarding Iran. It does not tell us what they will decide, but it could add urgency to the pursuit of an agreement—or to a decision to escalate.
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