Iran: What Would Real Justice Look Like?

Reparations, sanctions relief, and a pathway to lasting security

Since 1979, Iran’s rulers have caused enormous harm to their own people and to the region. They sent hundreds of thousands of children into the Iran–Iraq War, where an estimated 36,000–50,000 were killed as front-line fodder. They funded and armed violent proxy groups across the Middle East. They repeatedly threatened Israel’s elimination and promoted the slogan “Death to America.”

Then came the crackdowns of 2025–2026 protest movement. A September 2026 UN investigation found that repression of those protests included crimes against humanity. The International Centre for Human Rights estimated at least 43,000 people killed and approximately 350,000 injured. More than 95% of those deaths — at least 40,850 people — occurred in just two days over the 8th and 9th of January 2026. To put that in perspective: it took the war in Gaza eleven months, including heavy bombardment, to reach a comparable death toll, while Iran’s government’s slaughter of unarmed protesters achieved it in 48 hours.

Beyond its borders, Iranian missiles and drones have wrecked Gulf energy infrastructure, and forced neighbouring countries to spend billions intercepting attacks. Energy analysts at Welligence estimated that Iranian strikes destroyed more than US$25 billion in Gulf oil and gas infrastructure by early April 2026 alone.

So here is the question not only for mediators and diplomats – it’s one the international community needs to address: if Iran’s leaders eventually agree to a deal, what should that deal actually deliver? Sanctions relief is not enough. Promises are not enough. Real justice means victims compensated, prisoners released, infrastructure repaired, those responsible held accountable, and enforceable changes made so it cannot simply happen again.

Bringing the Iranian regime to a point where this sort of negotiation could be possible is the subject of another article. The issues below identify what a comprehensive restorative justice solution would encompass.

The Scale of the Damage

Qatar alone lost around 17% of its liquefied natural gas export capacity after attacks on its Ras Laffan facilities. The International Maritime Organisation verified 80 attacks on commercial shipping around the Strait of Hormuz, with at least 22 seafarers killed. Gulf states poured billions into missile defence systems, and every interceptor fired needs replacing.

Inside Iran, more than 60,000 people were arrested in 2026 alone for expression or political activity. Hengaw documents 106 protesters from January 2026 who have been sentenced to death; 35 have already been executed. Families have reported torture, rape, forced disappearances, and denial of legal representation. This is not an exhaustive list. The full reckoning will require independent investigation.

What a Real Agreement Must Include

Sanctions relief must be earned in stages, against a clear list of verified commitments. Partial deals that leave key issues unresolved are simply an invitation for more of the same. A credible agreement has to cover: Iran handing over its highly enriched uranium to international authorities and accepting enforceable limits on enrichment; cooperation to reopen and clear mines from the Strait of Hormuz; an end to support for armed groups in Lebanon, Gaza, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen; and a halt to military transfers that fuel regional conflicts. It should also end its export of drones and missiles to Russia and North Korea as well as a halt to offensive cyber operations.

On the domestic side: all people detained for peaceful protest or political expression must be released, independent investigators must be permitted access to detention facilities and official records, and a credible accountability commission must examine the conduct of senior officials. None of these is a concession. They are the baseline for any serious agreement.

Justice Starts at Home

The first obligation is to Iranians themselves. An independent compensation commission should investigate killings, injuries, torture, sexual violence, disappearances, and unlawful detention, then provide fair payments and long-term care according to the harm suffered. Senior political, military, and judicial figures implicated in these abuses must face individual accountability. Rank alone does not establish guilt, but it does not confer immunity either.

What Iran Owes Internationally

Iran’s international obligations span several areas: deaths and injuries from unlawful direct attacks; damage to energy facilities, ports, ships, and other infrastructure; lost oil and gas revenue; reasonable defensive interception costs directly caused by unlawful strikes; and mine-clearance costs. An illustrative compensation scheme gives a sense of the scale.

Paying US$250,000 for each of 43,000 deaths would require US$10.75 billion. At an average of US$25,000 for 350,000 injuries, graduated by severity and ongoing care needs, a further US$8.75 billion would be required. Adding US$1.5 billion for unlawful detention and related domestic harms brings the domestic total to roughly US$21 billion. Add a provisional US$50 billion for eligible international losses and US$10 billion for further claims, and a rough overall estimate of US$80 billion is conceivable.

There is a working precedent. After Iraq’s 1990 invasion of Kuwait, a UN compensation commission funded through Iraqi oil exports paid out US$52.4 billion to around 1.5 million successful claimants over roughly 30 years. Iran has the resources to do something comparable.

How It Gets Paid

Iran has substantial oil and gas reserves. The US Energy Information Administration describes major production potential if conditions allow recovery. Depending on export volumes and prices, gross oil export earnings could reach around US$60 billion annually. A contribution of 10–15% of that revenue to an independently supervised reparations fund would amount to US$6 to 9 billion each year, taking roughly 9 to 14 years to finance a US$80 billion schedule.

A second source is military restructuring. SIPRI estimated Iran’s 2025 military expenditure at US$7.4 billion; including missile and drone programmes pushes that to between US$15 and US$25 billion. Enforceable limits on offensive missiles, an end to arms exports, and genuine civilian oversight of military spending would likely free up several billion dollars per year.

One critical safeguard: these payments cannot come at the expense of ordinary Iranians. Essential spending on healthcare, food security, water, and electricity cannot be sacrificed to reparations. The goal is accountability, not condemning the Iranian population to another generation of suffering for crimes committed by their rulers.

Why a Purely Punitive Settlement Would Backfire

A deal that leaves Iran economically devastated and politically cornered is unlikely to produce a stable neighbour. More probably it produces a resentful, desperate one with every incentive to cause further chaos. History offers enough examples of punitive settlements that generated the next conflict rather than preventing it.

The goal is not to permanently weaken Iran. It is to create a different relationship: one where Iran’s resources flow into civilian development and regional cooperation rather than missiles, proxy wars, and domestic surveillance. Carefully sequenced sanctions relief, linked to verified commitments, is the mechanism that makes this possible. It is not a reward; it is the engine of the whole process.

Real justice is not measured simply by how much Iran pays. It is measured by whether victims receive genuine recognition and compensation, whether those in power who authorised crimes are held personally to account, whether neighbouring countries receive appropriate restitution, and whether the Iranian people are given an actual opportunity to build something different.

For decades, Iran’s wealth has been channelled into weaponry, proxy conflict, and domestic repression. A serious agreement should redirect a share of that wealth toward reconstruction, civilian investment, and regional security. That would be worth far more than any sanctions regime.

Iran should pay for the harm it has caused. Its leaders should be held personally accountable. And its people should be given the chance to build something better.