Israel Puts the Abraham Accords on the Edge
When the US facilitated the unprecedented peace agreement between Israel, Bahrain and the UAE in 2020, many perceived it as a significant stride towards enduring stability, particularly as Israeli tourists began to visit Dubai, UAE. At present, however, Netanyahu appears to be actively obstructing this prospect by rejecting the establishment of a Palestinian state, intensifying Israeli military operations in Palestinian territories and conducting bombings in Qatar. Concurrently, hostage families have asserted that the Israeli government constitutes the principal impediment to securing the release of their relatives. Consequently, it is pertinent to analyse both the political implications and underlying rationale of these measures as the Jewish state confronts a critical juncture.
Firstly, the Abraham Accords bore both significance and stipulations at the moment of Netanyahu’s endorsement. Within Israel’s agreements with the UAE and Bahrain, all signatories committed to pursuing a “realistic and enduring solution” to the Arab-Israeli conflict. Moreover, immediately prior to the 7 October 2023 attack, Saudi Arabia indicated that it remained inclined towards a peace treaty with Israel, contingent upon the satisfaction of Palestinian aspirations, including statehood. In the aftermath of the Israel-Hamas war, the Emirati authorities have cautioned that the Abraham Accords could disintegrate should Netanyahu persist in annexing sections of the West Bank, underscoring the fragile conditionality inherent within these diplomatic arrangements.
Thus, the Arab prerequisites for the Abraham Accords have been predominantly focused on the Palestinian issue. Peace with the Jewish state hinges upon Israel’s willingness to engage with the Palestinian Authority to enhance the living conditions of Palestinians. Equally, it is contingent upon the creation of a prospective Palestinian state delineated by the 1967 armistice lines. Furthermore, the UAE has insisted on the suspension of the E2 settlement initiative, which would partition the West Bank into two distinct areas. Despite these stipulations, the Israeli government has recently dismissed all such conditions, signalling a marked divergence from the expectations underpinning the Accords.
Regarding the initial condition of a Palestinian peace settlement, Netanyahu has deployed military forces in Gaza and the West Bank with minimal consideration for civilian lives since the 7 October 2023 attack. IDF operations in Gaza have precipitated widespread famine and resulted in over 60,000 fatalities, of which approximately 83 per cent were civilians. Simultaneously, Israeli forces have escalated activities in the West Bank, conducting violent raids on Palestinian towns, implementing arbitrary arrests, forcibly occupying and incinerating homes, and either tolerating or actively enabling settler violence against civilians under the justification of national security.
Even more alarmingly, Mossad targeted an embassy district in Doha, Qatar in a failed attempt to eliminate Hamas officials. As the mediator that has consistently urged Hamas to accept a ceasefire, Qatar reacted with outrage, while fellow GCC members, including the UAE, expressed profound concern over Israel’s conduct. Clearly, the Israeli government’s treatment of Palestinian civilians has long been viewed as inadequate by the Arab world. However, the direct assault on an indirect political ally has severely undermined Israel’s credibility, reaching unprecedentedly low levels regarding its professed commitment to achieving a peaceful resolution of the Palestinian question.
Although the Abraham Accords did not explicitly stipulate the creation of a Palestinian state, Saudi Arabia’s reactions have clearly reflected this expectation. Nevertheless, the IDF’s campaign against Hamas has propelled the Israeli government further from pursuing a two-state solution. Since the outset of the conflict, Netanyahu has persistently sought to annex Palestinian territories under the vision of a “Greater Israel”, encroach upon the sovereignty of other Middle Eastern states, and undermine peace efforts by obstructing negotiations. In addition, the prime minister has characterised France’s backing of Palestinian statehood as a present to Hamas and has voted against the two-state resolution at the UN, signalling an unequivocal departure from diplomatic compromise.
At this juncture, it is evident that Israel shows little interest in accommodating a Palestinian state, a stance that has stalled the potential for rapprochement between the Jewish state and Saudi Arabia. Following the Doha incident and the UN vote, Mohammed bin Salman asserted that “Gaza belongs to Palestinians”, repudiating any notion of Israeli occupation, while Saudi Arabia has actively sought to “secure international support” for Palestinian statehood. Despite the enduring US support for Israel, Trump reportedly expressed discontent at Netanyahu’s obstruction of peace negotiations in such a troubling manner, highlighting the growing diplomatic friction surrounding the region’s prospects for stability.
Finally, the Jewish state has revealed alarming intentions regarding the West Bank. Despite the internationally recognised illegality of Israeli settlements, the Netanyahu administration has signalled a determination to expand them, particularly in the aftermath of the 7 October 2023 attack. The contentious E1 settlement plan, long suspended due to international pressure, has been reinvigorated by the war, effectively undermining prospects for Palestinian statehood. Significantly, Finance Minister Smotrich has asserted that Palestinian statehood is being obliterated with actions instead of slogans, underscoring the administration’s commitment to tangible measures that preclude the establishment of a viable Palestinian state.
Now that the Israeli government has transgressed the red line established by the UAE under the Abraham Accords, the current Arab and Islamic summit in Qatar is expected to consider a series of sanctions against Israel, both in solidarity with Palestine and in condemnation of the Doha bombing. Should the Jewish state remain unmoved in its determination to proceed with further West Bank annexation, the region’s security landscape could deteriorate sharply, particularly as Iran — the very nation whose perceived threat had previously fostered rapprochement between Israel and Saudi Arabia — has recently strengthened its relations with the GCC hegemon, complicating the strategic balance in the Middle East.
In summary, Netanyahu has imperilled the Abraham Accords by inflicting mass civilian casualties in Palestine, targeting Qatar — an indirect ally — to undermine peace negotiations, nullifying prospects for an independent Palestinian state, and pursuing the forcible annexation of additional West Bank territories for exclusive Israeli control. In response, Qatar has convened an emergency summit with Islamic nations, while the US has maintained close engagement with the Jewish state. Undoubtedly, this represents a pivotal juncture that could decisively shape the future of the Abraham Accords, and Israel appears indifferent to the potential loss of the peace agreements it previously concluded with Arab states.
