Medical effects on Palestinians in the event of a nuclear attack on Israel

There are currently only 9 countries in the world with nuclear weapons: Russia, the United States, China, France, the United Kingdom, India, Pakistan, Israel and North Korea.

In the event of a regional or global nuclear escalation, any country in the world can be hit with a tactical or strategic nuclear warhead, and Israel is no exception.

On the one hand, Israel is unlikely to be attacked with nuclear weapons by the United States, France or the United Kingdom as they are historical allies.

On the other hand, the chances increase in the case of Russia, China, Pakistan, India and North Korea because they are diplomatically aligned with Palestine and recognize it as a state.

However, there are currently no military tensions between these countries and Israel. But a military escalation in the Middle East between Israel and its current enemies (especially Iran), would pit Israel and its allies against the Palestinian-aligned countries.

A Princeton Science and Global Security (SGS) study developed a simulation of a nuclear war between the United States and Russia in the context of a preliminary conventional war between these two countries. The end result of the exercise was a total of 34.1 million dead and 57.4 million wounded during the first 45 minutes of the conflict.

The dead would increase with the passage of time due to the burns and intractable polytrauma of some initial survivors and to the short, medium and long term effects produced by the fallout, especially in those survivors who could not find shelter in time once it started.

The effects of this fallout can extend to about 100 km away from the blast in 1000 kiloton detonations and the intensity of the effects on the human body is directly proportional to the proximity of the individual to the explosion.

The initial symptoms of Acute Radiation Syndrome (ARS) appear during the first minutes or hours. This prodromal period is characterized by anorexia, nausea, weakness and fatigue. Once the first wave of symptoms has passed, a latent phase of hours, days or weeks will follow. Sooner or later the effects on the bone marrow and gastrointestinal mucosa will produce leukopenia, thrombocytopenia, anemia, internal bleeding, severe gastrointestinal malabsorption syndrome, ulcers and perforations of the intestine causing septicemia. Survivors exposed to extreme radiation levels die within a few hours or on the second day due to circulatory collapse associated with acute cardiac necrosis. The skin may suffer ulceration and necrosis in case of close exposure to a high radioactive dose.

In the medium and long term, blindness due to cataracts is a minor consequence compared to the increase in the prevalence of all types of cancer, especially leukemia, as we have already seen in the survivors of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombings.

Indirectly, hunger and malnutrition, especially among children, would follow in the subsequent weeks and months as a result of food shortages and crop failures due to soil and freshwater sources contaminated by the fallout.

In the case of Israel, even if the detonations occur exclusively in any of its cities, some of them sufficiently powerful could affect Palestinian populations adjacent to those cities, as is the case of northern Gaza in the event of an attack on Ashkelon or the city of Qalqilya in the event of an attack on Tel Aviv. An attack on Jerusalem could directly annihilate some 400,000 Palestinians. Unequivocally, the fallout, in the event of a massive attack, would affect the entire region, including the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, Lebanon, Syria, Jordan and Egypt.

Due to Israel’s small size, only a tiny fraction of nuclear warheads would be needed compared to those used in the simulation of a nuclear war between the United States and Russia. Lethal damage would be done to both Israel and the Palestinian-controlled territories.

Estimating the number of dead and wounded would depend directly on the number and power of the explosions.

In conclusion, a nuclear attack on Israel would be a nuclear attack on Palestine and both populations would be seriously affected.

The political and military consequences of this hypothetical scenario would be beyond the scope of this analysis and must be discussed separately.