As I explained earlier, the outcome of the FBI investigation is not so important. In the last hearing, the candidate has shown to be unfit (lying for all to see, no control of temperament, clearly partisan), without any further exploration. But even that’s not a decisive argument. Appointing Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court is not decided on his merit at all.
In the past few days alone, there have been endless recriminations and counter-recriminations about Kavanaugh and his accusers and about corroborating or non-corroborating witnesses for or against each and about the role Republican or Democratic Senators played and if the FBI investigation was deep, wide or long enough. Yet, that’s all immaterial.
(Still: two dramatic sets of statements deserving special mention. One, that hopefully didn’t fool too many people, was issued by the Senate Committee Majority Leader and the Senate Majority Leader who both came out swinging against the Democratic Senators “who destroyed Kavanaugh’s fine life record and didn’t give him the same courtesy we afforded Dr. Ford.” Of course, the opposition wasn’t guilty of any such thing. The judge himself destroyed his own reputation, starting out furiously, being really unbelievable, belligerent, over-sentimental and evasive, and throughout lying to his heart’s content.
The other exceptional mention goes to the President, who had, to cheers of his audience, the stupidity and crudity to trash Dr. Ford at a campaign rally. This disgusted many Republican Senators, who declared so publically, and some of them are on the fence about appointing this “very fine judge” to the country’s highest bench. This lack of respect for Dr. Ford may have cost the Republicans the majority for approving Kavanaugh. So, thank you, Mr. President for your lack of self-control.)
Anyhow, it doesn’t even matter if Trump still wants Kavanaugh.
(For Democrats, the FBI results also don’t matter, since before any hearing, they knew their bird already, an ultra-conservative who’d swing the Supreme Court out of balance to the right for decades to come. The last hearing then made clear that he’s not just a bad bird but a bad egg.)
The only thing that counts for the Republican Senators is: what will be their own political gain/loss from appointing or not appointing him.
On the one hand, they could say: let’s appoint him. If we would lose our majority in the Midterm elections, at least, we’ll have secured the majority in the High Court of Justice for decades to come.
There are two problems with that. If Kavanaugh looks too bad enough, they might lose him anyway through impeachment, and nothing would be won. And appointing such a blatant liar might actually make them lose their parliamentarian majority in the first place.
Therefore, it would be safer not to appoint him, trying to hold on to the Senate’s majority, and if succeeding, they could get another right-wing Supreme Judge who’s less problematic. And if they lose the majority, they could still try to get someone in who’s not so bad for them.
At the end of the day, especially GOP Senators are conservatives, not daredevils, and if they’d try to prevent any loss, it would be their loss, above a loss of the Supreme Court. Even if they would have lost the Court, not all would be lost if they still have the majority in the Senate.
The easy way to do it is as follows. After a test vote shows that there is no majority to appoint Kavanaugh, he is secretly asked to resign his candidacy “to save his family further sorrow” in exchange for keeping his present job and not being prosecuted for multiple perjury charges.
The advantage of that strategy is that from the President down to the GOP Senators, from right-wing commentators to eventually Brett himself, they can all mourn the loss of a good man for a good job. They can forever blame the left and this way don’t need to admit the truth.
He won’t be appointed because he’ll choose to withdraw his candidacy.
When this whole process started, I asked people who know how to do it to pray hard because there seemed no way to stop the Supreme Court from turning right-wing. Thanks for your prayers! You did a great job!
And the basis for my current prediction? This: