The coming storm

There is a storm coming. The sanctions announced by the British, French and Canadian governments, with the support of dozens of other countries, are the darkening of the sky, a warning of what is to come.

I’ve been involved in pro-Israel activism in one way or another for two decades. I started as a campus activist, then coordinated the political activity of Jewish students across the United Kingdom, served in the IDF Spokesperson’s Unit, was responsible for Shimon Peres’ international media during the last years of his presidency, and have been working with Yair Lapid for over a decade as a foreign policy advisor in government and opposition.

In that time, I’ve seen attitudes to Israel from every possible angle – up close in fights on campus, in the corridors of power across the world, and through years of work with the international media.

In all those years, from all those perspectives, two things are clear to me – Israel’s standing has never been this bad, and without a change in government, it will get much worse.

Four things should be said right off the top:

There is antisemitism in the world. There are people, groups, donors and countries who will exploit any situation, any opportunity, to push an agenda that more or less explicitly seeks the destruction of Israel. Qatari and Iranian money, along with cooperation between the extreme left, extreme right and extreme Islamists, fuels this effort. Those actors – and their motives – have always existed.

Israel’s war in Gaza was just and necessary. We were attacked on October 7th; we didn’t start this war, we didn’t ask for this war, and while Hamas held Israeli hostages, there was no chance it could end. War is brutal, and it comes with a high price, especially against a terrorist organization that is evil and deeply cynical.

The people of Israel have the right to choose whichever government we want. We are a democracy; no one can tell us who to vote for; we don’t take orders from anyone. We created a Jewish state so that we could once again be sovereign and determine our own destiny, so that we wouldn’t be dependent on the good graces of any other nation. No one else gets to tell us whom to elect. But just as we can make the choice we believe is right, so too can other countries respond to it in a way they believe is right. And they will.

Israel cannot be an island nation. We cannot thrive or survive without international markets for our high-tech industry, without security cooperation for our submarines and planes, without tourism, and without friends and allies willing to support us.

There will be time to analyze how we lost the fight for global public opinion after being slaughtered in Israeli towns and communities. How, while Israeli men, women and children were being held hostage by a terrorist organization in horrific conditions, we lost the sympathy of the world.

The evidence of Israel’s collapsing international standing is everywhere: in US and global opinion polls (across age groups, ethnicities and political positions), the empty hall during Prime Minister Netanyahu’s UN speech and the scarcity of diplomatic visits to Israel, to name but a few.

While charges of apartheid and colonialism never really resonated widely or were beaten back effectively, the charge of genocide has stuck in the public mind. It categorically isn’t true. Whatever criticism people might have of the war in Gaza, it doesn’t meet any definition of the word genocide. It is quite simply a lie. But an effective one.

But one thing is clear – the Israeli government has made it worse. Outrageous statements, extremist language, callousness towards human suffering, absurd fantasies of settling Gaza or displacing its population, the failure to confront Jewish terrorism or articulate a positive vision for the future, and a failure to mount a serious public diplomacy effort (choosing instead to attempt to appease the worst elements of this government) have all alienated our friends and empowered our adversaries.

From conversations with diplomats, public opinion leaders and politicians, the message is clear: we cannot hold back the storm unless Israel changes direction. Our friends around the world are sounding the alarm; they are asking us to take note.

There will be the brave few who stand with us while others turn their backs. But mostly, there will be friends who want to stand with us, who want to see an Israel they can believe in again. Those friends are Jews and non-Jews; they are on the left, right and center; they are in capitals across the Middle East. We should listen to moderate, formerly pro-Israel lawmakers or ministers who are practically begging us to change direction.

The most common refrain from our friends is this: help us to help you. Give us something to work with.

Even with a new government, the challenges we face are vast. A new government will have to show that it shares the values of our friends in the West, that it understands the interests of our friends in the region, and that it cares about the rest of the world.

I don’t want to sound like a prophet of doom, but the storm headed our way is the most serious we have faced. It has started with sanctions on goods from beyond the Green Line, but it won’t stop there. Our banking system and financial services will be next. It has started with a ban on the sale of offensive weapons and export licenses, but it won’t stop there. The demands of the anti-Israel movement will increase, and politicians will take the easy way out and succumb to that pressure knowing they won’t pay a domestic political price.

Within a few years, every Israeli will feel the effects in their pockets, their ability to travel and, ultimately, our ability to defend ourselves.

A new government does not need to, and it must not, compromise an inch on Israeli security. That is any government’s first responsibility to its citizens, and the world has to understand that. But a new government will have to understand that real security rests on military strength, economic power, diplomatic standing and social cohesion – strength at home combined with partnerships abroad. Anyone who doubts that should look at the weapons systems that keep us safe, the flight paths of our pilots to Iran or the foundations of our economy.

Which brings me to the upcoming election. We have a choice to make, and that choice has real consequences.

Any government that includes Ben Gvir and Smotrich will signal to the world that Israel is on the same path. Any government led by Prime Minister Netanyahu will make a change of direction impossible. The policies matter, but so do the personalities.

If we want to repair some of the damage, if we want to take advantage of the opportunities that still exist in the region (and they do still exist), then we need a change in people and policy.

When we go to vote on October 27th, we have to have that reality in mind. We must not be blind to the consequences of our choices. We should be honest about what they are and choose accordingly.