The Syrian Revolution and it’s effects on the Gulf

The Secretary-General of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) for the Arab States of the Gulf, Jassem al-Budaiwi, stressed the firm position of the Gulf states regarding the crisis in Syria, preserving its territorial integrity, respecting its independence and sovereignty, and the support of the Council to achieve the aspirations of the Syrian people for stability and development.

Al-Budaiwi said that “the GCC countries, based on their principles that emphasize respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of neighboring states, and in order to achieve security and stability in the region, renew their rejection of regional interference in Syrian affairs, and everything that affects Arab national security and threatens international peace and security.”

From this standpoint, Syrian-Gulf relations went through many turning points during the period from 2010 till now, the most recent of which was former President Bashar al-Assad’s attendance at the Arab-Islamic summit, in which it was expected that al-Assad would push to reach equivalence and settlements with the Syrian opposition, especially since he played a somewhat balanced role with the Gaza -Israeli war, at least on the surface. However, unfortunately, he dealt with the situation through a long and boring speech talking about everything but Syria, as if the Syrian situation was stable and not going through a difficult stage!

Statements came later that he did not listen to any advice regarding the situation in his country, which explains what happened later with the rapid fall of the Syrian regime in a way that exceeded everyone’s expectations who forsaw the collapse, staging an important milestone in the country’s long history.

The Gulf states had a largely neutral role in the Syrian conflict, considering the Syrian people a very important part of the Arab world, and dealing with the former president was careful so that matters would not lead to unpleasant results, which occurred despite that throughout the civil war. The Gulf countries welcomed displaced Syrian citizens from conflict areas, and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia alone received more than 500,000 refugees who were treated as Saudi citizens -beside the migrant Syrian workforce that is estimated at 2 million- in addition to ongoing in-kind and diplomatic aid.

The size of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia plays an important role in making the situation even more difficult than it already is, which makes it necessary to eliminate extremist groups as they directly affect its sovereignty. Saudi Arabia has vast open borders; to the east, it is bordered by Bahrain, where Iranian-backed Shiite extremist groups have tried to directly undermine Saudi security. It is also bordered by Yemen in the south, where the Houthi group has continuously tried to carry out direct sabotage and military operation.

As for the north, it is bordered with Iraq and Jordan by large desert borders, and with Egypt and Israel by narrow maritime borders. These are things that make leadership of the Arab and Islamic world difficult, in parallel with protecting its sovereignty and lands, which despite all of that is doing a tremendous job that no one can deny.

In the coming months neighboring countries will have to pay attention to the small matters before the big ones, in terms of security, and those countries will also have to adopt a policy of tightening security. One of the most important interim priorities is to return Syria to the Arab League and protect it from inside and outside. A joint Arab committee could be formed to help the Syrians overcome the obstacles of the next stage and supervise a peaceful transition of power.

There is a clear trend that has begun to appear to the surface through the penetration of an extremist and foreign ideology into the Arab Gulf states by those with extremist Islamic thoughts, both Shiite and Sunni, who seek to undermine and weaken societies and states alike by targeting and controlling everything related to religion, through penetrating educations systems in Schools and Mosques. The largest, as well as the greatest responsibility, falls on the leader of the region, Saudi Arabia.

As happened previously with the entry of Iranian military and intelligence personnel into Saudi during the Hajj season, and on other fronts other organizations -such as the Muslim Brotherhood- infiltrating the minds of some deceived youth, these organizations are carrying out military operations against the security and stability of the region, which, if they are not confronted, will lead to the weakening of the Gulf states security-wise, economically, and socially.

In the next phase, the Gulf states will have to build new alliances, focusing in particular on security, aimed at protecting their borders and security in the near term. It will also have to strictly put an end to the remaining armed militias and sleeper cells.

Two main factors cannot be overlooked regarding the speed of recent events. The first is that what happened was one of the consequences of the October 7 attacks and forcing Israel and the United States of America to eliminate the Iranian axis.

The other factor is the deterioration of the internal Syrian situation, which has affected neighboring countries and the world as well. The problem of displaced Syrians has caused major economic and security crises’ in the European Union, as well as in Turkey. Which prompted the European Union to carry out extensive communications that were not understood at the time, but they are now after we have seen the speed of the fall of the Syrian regime and the way the opposition armed forces have dealt so far.

The role that the October 7 attacks played in accelerating what happened in Syria during the past few days cannot be overlooked, just as Hezbollah was taken down, the Syrian ongoing events, will be followed by bringing down the Iraqi Mobilized Forces al-Hash al-Sha’abi and other groups, all the way to the Houthis in Yemen, in an attempt to eliminate the cause of it all,  Iran. It’s not clear how Iran will be handled, but an open war with the Persian nation is still farfetched, but events of such sort seem to accelerate from now until January 20th, the day Trump officially takes office, when events will enter a new phase.

The fall of al-Assad is the latest in a series of major setbacks that Tehran has suffered. Iran spent the past four decades developing Arab partners and proxies in the region, collectively known as the “Axis of Resistance.” But their downfall started by the assassination of Suleimani, and accelerated as a result of the un-calculated decision that led to the October 7 attacks.

Iran was crucial to al-Assad and his regime during the latter’s battle to stay in power during the civil war that erupted out in 2011. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard maintained a strong presence in Syria until its withdrawal last week, before the rebels advancements in Syria. Iran also used Syria as a bridge to smuggle weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Hamas in Gaza too.

But now that al-Assad is gone, Hezbollah is greatly weakened by its war with Israel, and Hamas, another Iranian proxy in Gaza, has been destroyed by its reckless war against Israel. Al-Assad has always been an enemy to Israel, who perceived him as the devil they knew. Israel admitted that al-Assad kept the border with Israel largely calm, even when the region was on fire.

Israel will now face a highly unpredictable Syria, where Islamist groups will assume a prominent role. Over the past year, Israel has been fighting similar groups, Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Israel would be worried of a similar group in Syria; since it annexed the Golan Heights from Syria in the 1967 Middle East War. It is certain that Israel’s continued control of the Golan Heights will remain a major point of friction, regardless of who takes power in Damascus.

As for Turkey, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has multiple goals in Syria and is well placed to play a leading role in its future. First, Erdogan wants to form a new government in Syria that serves his interests, besides the refugee crises.

The stability of Syria has major geopolitical, economic, and security consequences for the region in general, and its return to the Arab league, away from the axis of Iranian resistance, is stability for the region. In the past, Syria played a leading and pivotal role in developing and maintaining the security of the region as a whole. However, global developments led the former president to enter a spiral away from the interests of his country and its development, to play a role in arming Shiite extremist groups, starting with Hezbollah and ending with the Houthis, to play the role of a proxy for Russia and Iran in the region.

The next stage raises major concerns, starting with the peaceful transfer of power, disarmament, armed conflicts, and most importantly, avoiding genocides and protecting minorities. As for the potential regional dangers, it is the adoption of extremist ideology towards neighboring countries, which will affect the security of the region as a whole and Israel & the Gulf countries in particular.

The biggest fear today is of those at the forefront of the Syrian opposition that are armed and heading towards extremism, as some of them issued statements aiming to liberate Jerusalem, while others went even further, declaring the liberation of the Mecca! These are statements that should not be ignored or overlooked. These statements remind me of the beginnings of the Islamic Revolution in Iran, when its new constitution at that time addressed the Revolutionary Guard’s commitment to exporting the revolution, the very consequences we see today.