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The Ukraine and Taiwan Debacle

1/1/2022

*This analytic report was written in late December 2021 and January 2022 in response to articles published, December 20, 2021, titled, “Why China won’t invade Taiwan and Russia won’t invade Ukraine”. This hypothesis was posted on the TOI blog in January but pulled before publishing. It was sent to relevant security, State Department and military individuals instead. Unfortunately, Ukraine was attacked anyway, and now we wait and see what China will do.

In a shift from my usual analytic material on the Middle East, I will be commenting on the recent discussions and reporting on the potential China and Taiwan, and Russia and Ukraine, war fears.

There are reports from contributors that base their allegedly scenarios and action, or non-action, on what they, their country or culture would do.

China and Russia are nothing like USA or Europe. Therefore, predicting their behavior on ‘western culture and behavior’ is a fundamental and colossal mistake.

Both China and Russia have one thing in similar parallel.

China is a “people’s” country and culture. In addition, to the Chinese deep-seated historical, traditions of the strong and powerful ruling unconditionally.

And, the ‘people’ are expendable in a sense, or that their duty lies with what the Chinese Leadership dictates. Breaking these rules or norms can be met with extreme measures, or disappearances and re-education, as suspected with the recent female tennis star and her accusations. Also, this is not the first time of such incidents – far from it.

Hence, suggesting China would not massively, directly attack Taiwan would be assuming China would proceed as Americans or Europeans, who value life and liberty in different significance, according to USA and EU culture, and their political correctness, and dear I say woke culture. A woke culture which if displayed in China, purportedly, is considered weakness, disrespect of culture, resentment or heretical of China, and lawlessness against China and the Chinese leadership.

Nor, supposedly, for the same reasons above, do the Chinese want to proceed or ‘act’ as Americans or Europeans.

Russia (and, allegedly, in equivalent to China), is a society of pre and postmodern dictatorial rule, despite the title of President or Prime Minister, and ‘people devoted’ to country, state and leadership.

Past and now purportedly present Russian leaders, education system, intelligence services, the military, sometimes organized crime, and substantial pockets of unwavering national pride, have insured dedication to the nation through a variety of means, many times, deemed unnecessary, or downright brutal or horrific by the west.

And, both China and Russia control and intimidate the press or free speech.

Furthermore, both China and Russia are male dominated societies in behavior despite what some data may reflect. Neither, ponder with any seriousness, consider or respect ‘western’ political correctness or any western historical or current culture and behavioral modes. Quite the opposite.

Thus, this pattern of lifestyle can be accurately predicted to reflect, or eventually reflect, to include leadership, intel, military, and organized crime, total male dominance violence, total male dominance violent reactions to any needs and wants, challengers, danger or threats, international or domestic threats, and prone to violent or unpredictable reactions out-of-spite, merely to prove a point, or to show off.

Plus, nations or cultures that have a history of dictatorship, expanding territory or land, reestablishing territory or empire, slave-type prisons, ‘slave’ workers, immense repression, aggressive population control, and comprehensive disregard of freedom, body count or ‘common’ civilian deaths (their own or others), exploitation of civilians, borders, countries and other countries’ natural resources; these nations or cultures cannot be expected to behave or abide by western norms, rules or behavior. In any manner or sort.

Subsequently, it is a grave mistake to disregard consistent, historical patterns of behavior, especially, in war or the threat of war. Otherwise, we risk having two (or three if the Middle East deteriorates) substantial earth-shattering wars in the same time-frame or near future.

Also, neither China or Russia is intimidated by Europe, or USA threats, and closely monitor USA’s domestic and international situations and reactions. China and Russia can help support each other, and joined by other nations out of fear and pay-offs. It is no coincidence of the dual timing of the threats to Taiwan and Ukraine, as it would demand USA to split forces and fight and defend two long distance regional fronts, while a third force is on standby ‘guarding’ against threats in the Middle East.

Consequently, although I certainly hope analysts are correct that military threats are a negotiation tactic or ploy, and neither China will attack Taiwan, or Russia will attack Ukraine, I do not hold their same confidence or reasoning that one or both ultimately won’t.

About the Author
Don Davis is a published Middle East analyst and book author. For more than twenty years most of his research material was client confidential and behavioral related. But many of his abridged reports on current or Israeli subjects have been posted as articles or blogs in, The Times of Israel, The Christian Messenger, a newspaper/journal/magazine, and in American news online. Don is also the book author of The Children of Santiago, The Theogonic Resurrections, My three and a half hours at Playboy Mansion West, and Knights of Consuming Fire.
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