Don Davis

An Iranian 1948 Arab/Israeli War Reboot?

Israel has a solid history of eliminating security threats, and destroying enemies’ nuclear facilities.

As a result, Iran expects Israel to strike the Iranian nuclear program. Particularly, since Israel, for years, has continuously attacked Iranian targets both inside Iran and abroad. Many times, with incredible success and tactics, and with impunity.

Accordingly, it’s not a question for Iran on maybe. Instead, it is a question of when.

Consequently, Iran purportedly came to a few conclusions. A couple which are – it’s better to fight Israel on Iranian choice of timetabling and with Iranian provocation.

In other words, an Iranian coordinated and precision strike on Israel.

Progressively, Iranian momentum and planning increased. And, now dramatically amplified with current domestic Israeli events; because the Iranians ‘smell’ Israeli fear, confusion, and opportunity, and are trying to ‘encircle’ Israel for the ‘kill’.

Iran, and other internal and external enemies of Israel, sense and believe, whether correct or not, a major mood and behavior shift in the Israeli government and military leadership. Contemporary alterations in Israeli government and military behavior, conversations, and actions. Indicating Israeli stresses, anxieties and division that can be interpreted as indecision, indecisive, and fear. Which to any enemy of Israel is a sign of Israeli weakness.

Plus, a prevalent Israeli government and military depressed mode of ‘missed opportunity’, due to their previous plans to attack Iran years earlier. (Before Russia reentered Syria). As confirmed by Prime Minister Shimon Peres, prior to his death.

Also, of overwhelm due to domestic and international incidents.

Therefore, there are no coincidences that Iran has increased their attacks, proxy attacks, and attack attempts against Israel. Paralleled by extending peace to, once hostile, Arab Nations, while trying to build an Iranian ‘axis’ coalition against Israel.

However, due to exceptional Israeli operative intelligence and electronic intelligence gathering, among other methods, the Iranians needed to change strategy. They, along with other enemies of Israel, mutual enemies inside Israel and out, went ‘old school’. Especially, supposedly, ‘terror cells’. Some schemes which may have included, purportedly, simple pencil and paper communication that could be destroyed by fire, person to person contact, no verbal ‘business’ only pleasantry talk; and no electronic devices.

In addition, in order not to alert the Americans; Iranian normal channels, and Russian contacts, could not be utilized to re-engage the Arab Nations, and high visible terror groups. Rather, begin with engaging China, who are more stealthy, secretive, and hard for USA to infiltrate.

Nevertheless, it won’t be easy to sway the Arab Nations to relive the 1948 offensive against Israel, and join the Iranian ‘ring of fire’ against Israel. Except, for probably Assad in Syria.

The bordering Arab Nations to Israel know too well, from past conflict and wars, the military might and capability of Israel.

Plus, many Arab Nations secretly depend on Israeli intelligence for security and protection, and have substantial clandestine financial, tech and medical interaction with Israel.

Furthermore, Israel has a military ‘ace card’. Their ‘unacknowledged’ nuclear weapons arsenal. That Israel would allegedly use as a last resort ‘in the fear of annihilation’, as in the rumored but not officially confirmed threat in the 1973 Yom Kippur War.

Although, there might be some Arab Nations willing to play both sides, Israel vs Iran, and eventually act against Israel if Iran’s plan succeeds or opportunity arises.

About the Author
Don Davis is a published Middle East analyst and book author that has been in the Middle East, North Africa, and Mediterranean region since 1992. For more than twenty years most of his research material was client confidential and behavioral related. But some of his abridged reports have been posted as articles or blogs. Don is also the book author of the international spy and assassin thriller, The Children of Santiago. The story is no fuzzy, cutesy story. Instead, a sobering, blunt, action and psychological account about a military general, Santiago, using child, teen and young adults as spies and assassins. Recruited from international families while on active assignments abroad during the 1960s, 70s, 80s and 1990s.
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